基于矩估计理论的滨海金矿涌水风险GRA-VIKOR评价模型  

GRA-VIKOR Evaluation Model of Water Inrush Risk in Coastal Gold Mines Based on Moment Estimation Theory

作　　者：向韫 曹明 XIANG Yun;CAO Ming(Changsha Institute of Mining Research Co.,Ltd.,Changsha,Hunan 410012,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙矿山研究院有限责任公司,湖南长沙410012

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2025年第2期146-154,共9页Mining Research and Development

摘　　要：针对滨海金矿涌水风险具有随机性和模糊性的特点以及评价指标之间复杂的关联性问题,为使滨海金矿涌水风险评估更科学,建立了基于矩估计理论的滨海金矿涌水风险GRA-VIKOR评价模型。首先,从工程地质和水文地质2个方面,选取10个典型影响因素,构建了评价指标体系;其次,采用区间层次分析法(IAHP)、序关系分析法(G1)、熵权法(EM)和改进相关性法(ICRITIC)4种单一赋权法计算指标主、客观权重,基于矩估计理论,改进主、客观权重集成优化方法;根据GRA-VIKOR原理,通过计算综合评价值,分析判定涌水风险状态;最后,将该模型应用到山东省某金矿9个中段涌水风险评估中,确定各中段涌水风险等级和排序。结果表明,该模型评价结果准确合理,符合实际,可为滨海金矿涌水风险评估工作提供参考。In response to the randomness and fuzziness of water inrush risk in coastal gold mines,as well as the complex correlation among evaluation indicators,a GRA-VIKOR evaluation model of water inrush risk in coastal gold mines based on moment estimation theory was established to make the risk assessment more scientific.Firstly,10 typical influencing factors were selected from two aspects of engineering geology and hydrogeology,and an evaluation indicator system was constructed.Secondly,four single weighting methods,namely IAHP method,G1 method,EM method,and I-CRITIC method,were used to calculate the subjective and objective weights of the indicators.Based on moment estimation theory,the integrated optimization method of subjective and objective weights was improved.According to the GRA-VIKOR principle,the risk status of water inrush was analyzed and determined by calculating the comprehensive evaluation values.Finally,the model was applied to the risk assessment of water inrush in 9 middle sections of a gold mine in Shandong Province,the risk level and ranking of water inrush in each middle section were determined.The results indicate that the evaluation results of the model are accurate and reasonable,in line with reality,and can provide reliable ideas for the risk evaluation of water inrush in coastal gold mines.

关 键 词：滨海金矿 涌水风险 矩估计理论 灰色关联法 多准则妥协解排序法 

分 类 号：TD742[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]