经济周期中货币政策传导效率的非对称性之谜——基于商业信用与信贷约束视角的分析  

The Puzzle of Asymmetric Monetary Policy Transmission in Economic Cycles:A Perspective of Trade Credit and Credit Constraints

作　　者：周上尧 熊琛 屈伸 ZHOU Shang-yao;XIONG Chen;QU Shen(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;Economics and Management School,Wuhan University;Business School,Hubei University)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]湖北大学商学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2025年第1期43-61,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“地方政府隐性债务与银行部门的系统性风险研究”(批准号72303249);国家自然科学基金青年项目“地方政府隐性债务风险的区域间传染效应研究:基于系统性债务风险的视角”(批准号72203161)。

摘　　要：理解经济周期中货币政策传导效率的变化是健全货币政策调控机制的关键问题之一。现有经验研究表明,经济周期中货币政策传导效率具有非对称性,即经济衰退阶段的货币政策传导效率更弱,但以银行信贷为基础的传统货币政策传导理论难以解释此现象。为解释这一货币政策传导效率的非对称性之谜,本文以作为外部融资重要构成的商业信用为切入点,构造了一个具有信贷约束与商业信用约束的双重金融摩擦的企业微观理论模型,定性分析货币政策与双重金融摩擦之间的交互机制如何影响货币政策传导,并运用上市公司数据验证了理论模型的合理性。之后,本文将双重金融摩擦设定引入具有垂直生产结构的多部门NK-DSGE模型中,并对估计后的模型进行非线性数值模拟。结果显示,商业信用与信贷约束之间的非线性交互特性可以解释货币政策传导效率的非对称性。当经济处于衰退阶段时,信贷约束的融资溢价对宽松货币政策冲击的逆周期调整会降低商业信用的隐性融资成本,进而减少企业中间品投入、生产及投资规模,最终削弱货币政策的刺激效应,且上述机制在经济扩张阶段并不显著。本文研究增进了对货币政策传导效率非对称性的理解,为提升货币政策传导效率提供了参考。Understanding the variations in monetary policy transmission efficiency during economic cycles is one of the key issues in improving the monetary policy framework.Existing empirical studies indicate that the efficiency of monetary policy transmission exhibits asymmetry over the economic cycle,with weaker efficiency during economic downturns.However,conventional monetary policy transmission theories based on bank credit fail to adequately explain this phenomenon.Addressing this asymmetry in monetary policy transmission efficiency across economic cycles is a key research focus.Given the crucial role of trade credit in financing,conventional credit constraints and bank lending channels may not fully explain the actual dynamics of monetary policy transmission in China.This study constructs a micro-founded dynamic decision model for firms that incorporates both credit constraints and endogenous trade credit behavior to explore the asymmetry in monetary policy transmission efficiency.Additionally,the study integrates firms’dynamic decision-making into a multisector new Keynesian model,employing nonlinear simulation and counterfactual analysis to investigate the impact of trade credit on monetary policy asymmetry.The findings reveal that firms’investment behavior is influenced by both the conventional credit constraint channel of monetary policy and an opposing trade credit channel.The significance of the trade credit channel depends on the tightness of credit constraints,becoming notable only when credit constraints are binding.This characteristic explains the weaker transmission efficiency during economic downturns.Quantitative results show that the model effectively replicates the weaker effects of monetary policy shocks during recessions,with trade credit identified as the fundamental cause of this asymmetry.This study offers important policy implications for refining the monetary policy framework.Key recommendations include adopting dynamic monetary policy rules that adjust with economic cycles to replace stati

关 键 词：货币政策传导效率 信贷约束 商业信用 非对称性 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]