Simulation and analysis of the long-term impacts of 1.5℃ global climate pledges on China's land systems  

作　　者：Jiaying LV Changqing SONG Yifan GAO Sijing YE Peichao GAO 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [2]Center for GeoData and Analysis,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2025年第2期457-472,共16页中国科学(地球科学英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42230106,42271418,42171088&42171250)。

摘　　要：Global warming has become a shared issue for humanity.At the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2021,participating countries reached climate pledges aimed at making more proactive contributions to limit the global average temperature rise within 1.5℃by 2100.Land system changes are significant responses of land to climate change.As one of the contracting parties,China has proposed climate targets such as carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in recent years to support the global pledges of limiting global warming to 1.5℃,which will profoundly impact China's future land system changes.This study focuses on China as the study area,produces data with a thematic resolution of 27 types of land systems,integrates the output of various land types by the Global Change Assessment Model(GCAM)into four categories of land service demand,and combines these with the improved CLUMondo model to simulate China's land system changes in 2100 under a 1.5℃global warming scenario and a reference scenario without updated emission reduction measures.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The method of integrating the GCAM and improved CLUMondo model demonstrates high validation accuracy in simulating China's land system changes,effectively predicting the changes.(2)Under the 1.5℃global warming scenario,the quality of ecosystems related to mountains,water,forests,farmland,lakes,and grasslands in China improved.The areas of shrubland,wetland,and forest are projected to increase by 185%,79%,and 33%,respectively,with low-density shrubland,high-density wetland,and high-density forest showing the most significant increases.(3)Compared with the reference scenario,the 1.5℃climate pledges drive greater changes in future land systems,with wetland and forest area growth levels exceeding those of the reference scenario by 20%and 10%,respectively.Notably,the changes in cropland,grassland,and wetland areas are more pronounced in southern and coastal regions.(4)The most

关 键 词：1.5℃global warming China Land system changes SIMULATION Scenario analysis 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]