Impact of human activities on the long-term change and seasonal variability of Ebinur Lake,Northwest China  

作　　者：Haoxin DENG Qiuhong TANG Zhidong ZHANG Xingcai LIU Gang ZHAO Shibo CUI Zhiping ZHANG Shuai SHAO Jianbao LIU Fahu CHEN 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [4]School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China [5]Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation(ALPHA),State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2025年第2期473-486,共14页中国科学(地球科学英文版)

基　　金：supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition and Research(Grant No.2021xjkk0805);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41790424);NSFC-DFG Mobility(Grant No.M0468)。

摘　　要：Inland lakes in arid Central Asia are particularly susceptible to the impact of climate change and human activities.Ebinur Lake,the largest salt inland lake in Xinjiang,Northwest China,has experienced rapid shrinkage,with human activities identified as the primary influencing factor.However,it remains unclear how human water use in different sectors,such as irrigation,husbandry,and industry,is responsible for the long-term change and seasonal variability of the lake area under changing climate.This study aims to address this knowledge gap by developing an integrated hydrological-socioeconomic-lake model that simulates the changes in the Ebinur Lake area during the period of 1950–2020.The simulated lake area changes under different model experiments were then compared with separate the impacts of climate change and human water use of different sectors.The results indicate that climate change,irrigation,husbandry,and industry water uses have contributed+5%,-79%,-25%,and-1%of the long-term change in the lake area,respectively.Despite climate change alone increasing the lake area,the increase in human water use has resulted in the persistent decline of Ebinur Lake.Notably,husbandry water use emerges as a significant contributor to lake shrinkage,accounting for approximately one-third of the impact of irrigation.Furthermore,irrigation water use has contributed to the enhanced seasonal variability,as indicated by the difference between the maximum and minimum monthly lake area in a year.This difference has increased from 120 km2in the 1950s to 183 km2in the 2010s.

关 键 词：Ebinur Lake Climate change IRRIGATION Seasonal variability Hydrological-socioeconomic-lake model 

分 类 号：P343.3[天文地球—水文科学]