反射控制理论视角下俄罗斯情报欺骗问题研究——一项信号操纵分析框架  

A Study of Russian Intelligence Deception from a Reflexive Control Theory Perspective: A Framework for Analyzing Signal Manipulation

作　　者：安洪若 高金虎 An Hongruo;Gao Jinhu(College of International Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2025年第3期1-11,63,共12页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金军事学重大项目“新时代巩固提高一体化国家安全情报体系和能力问题研究”(编号:2023-SKJJ-A-010);国防科技大学教育教学重点研究课题“基于深度学习理论培塑军事情报专业本科学员学术素养的《情报文化》课程改革研究”(编号:U2022208)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]“反射控制”理论旨在通过情报欺骗手段对敌方决策实施干预和操纵。系统考察“反射控制”理论视角下俄罗斯情报欺骗问题,有助于解释俄罗斯情报机构欺骗性信息行动的理论缘起、作用机理与局限性。[研究方法]按照“理论解构—作用机理—张力分析”的研究思路,解析俄罗斯情报欺骗的概念内涵,阐释“反射控制”理论与俄罗斯情报欺骗行动的关系,考察“反射控制”理论的核心内容与理论基础,分析“反射控制”理论在情报欺骗的准备、策划和执行阶段的作用机制,剖析“反射控制”理论视角下俄罗斯情报欺骗的局限性。[研究结果/结论]“反射控制”理论作为一项信号操纵理论,是俄罗斯情报欺骗的指导原则,其以二元对立的价值认知为理论预设,以二阶控制论为理论旨归,以操纵敌方决策为最终目标。“反射控制”理论视角下俄罗斯情报欺骗要求增加敌方OODA决策循环的负荷,减少己方OODA决策循环的时间,使己方OODA决策循环的时间快于敌方。“反射控制”视角下俄罗斯情报欺骗并非万能手段,其在理论、目标与操作三方面存在矛盾张力。[Research purpose]The theory of reflexive control aims to intervene in and manipulate enemy decision-making by means of intelligence deception.A systematic examination of the issue of Russian intelligence deception from the perspective of the reflexive control theory will help to explain the theoretical origins,mechanisms and limitations of deceptive information operations by Russian intelligence agencies.[Research method]In accordance with the research idea of"theoretical deconstruction-functioning mechanism-operating tension",we analyze the conceptual connotation of Russian intelligence deception,explain the relationship between reflexive control theory and Russian intelligence deception,examine the core content and theoretical basis of reflexive control theory,and analyze the limitations of Russian intelligence deception from the perspective of reflexive control theory.It also examines the core content and theoretical basis of the reflexive control theory,analyzes the mechanism of reflexive control theory in the preparation,planning and execution stages of intelligence deception,and analyzes the limitations of Russian intelligence deception from the perspective of reflexive control theory.[Research result/conclusion]Reflexive control theory,as a signal manipulation theory,is the guiding principle of Russian intelligence deception,which takes dichotomous value perceptions as its theoretical presuppositions,second-order cybernetics as its theoretical purpose,and manipulation of the enemy's decision-making as its ultimate goal.Russian intelligence deception under the perspective of reflexive control theory requires to increase the load of the enemy's OODA decision cycle,reduce the time of its own OODA decision cycle,and make the time of its own OODA decision cycle faster than that of the enemy.Russian intelligence deception under the perspective of reflexive control is not a panacea,and there are operational tensions between theory,objective and operation.

关 键 词：反射控制 情报欺骗 信号操纵 认知干预 国家安全情报 俄罗斯 

分 类 号：G250[文化科学—图书馆学]