理查德·贝茨“政策关联”情报分析理论探析  

On Richard K.Betts' Policy-Correlated Intelligence Analysis Theory

作　　者：周柏林 Zhou Bailin(College of International Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2025年第3期64-71,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金军事学重大项目“新时代巩固提高一体化国家安全情报体系和能力问题研究”(编号:2023-SKJJ-A-010);国防科技大学教育教学重点研究课题“基于深度学习理论培塑军事情报专业本科学员学术素养的《情报文化》课程改革研究”(编号:U2022208)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]情报与决策关系问题是情报研究领域备受争议的议题,众多学者长期关注并进行激烈争论,其中理查德·贝茨的“政策关联”理论独树一帜,引起学界广泛关注,但鲜见系统研究。本研究旨在对“政策关联”理论进行全面梳理,探究影响情报与决策关系的根源,提出改善二者关系的路径。[研究方法]采用文本细读法对贝茨著作开展文本分析,总结提炼贝茨“政策关联”理论内核,运用比较研究法考察“政策关联”理论的特点,客观评价该情报分析理论的价值。[研究结果/结论]“政策关联”理论从情报工作现实出发,辩证认识情报工作中的政治性,强调要把握政治化的尺度,加强情报与政策关联性的同时,克服政治诉求和无意识偏见对情报分析客观性的侵蚀。[Research purpose]The issue of intelligence-policy nexus is a controversial topic in the field of intelligence research,which has received long-term attention and intense debates from many scholars.Among them,Richard K.Betts'policy-correlated theory is unique and has attracted widespread attention in academia,while systematic research is rare.This study aims to comprehensively review the policy-correlated theory,explore the roots affecting the intelligence-policy nexus,and propose ways to improve the intelligence-policy relationship.[Research method]This article uses textual close reading method to conduct text analysis on Betts'literature,summarizing and refining the core of Betts'policy-correlated theory,and applies comparative research method to examine the characteristics of the theory,objectively evaluating the value of this intelligence analysis theory,and taking the inspiration and reference for intelligence practice into account.[Research result/conclusion]Starting from the reality of intelligence,the policy-correlated theory dialectically understands the political nature of intelligence,emphasizes the need to grasp the scale of politicization,strengthens the correlation between intelligence and policy,and overcomes the erosion of political demands and unconscious biases on the objectivity of intelligence analysis.

关 键 词：理查德·贝茨 政策关联 情报分析 情报评估 情报与决策 情报工作 情报政治化 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]