1967-2022年粤东地区干旱特征  

Characteristics of Droughts from 1967 to 2022 in Eastern Guangdong

作　　者：谢汉良 陈洵 林晓吟 许琼芸 蔡铭舜 丁丽佳 XIE Hanliang;CHEN Xun;LIN Xiaoyin;XU Qiongyun;CAI Mingshun;DING Lijia(Raoping Meteorological Service,Raoping 515700;Chaozhou Meteorological Service,Chaozhou 521000;Raoping Early Warning Center,Raoping 515700)

机构地区：[1]饶平县气象局,广东饶平515700 [2]潮州市气象局,广东潮州521000 [3]饶平县突发事件预警信息发布中心,广东饶平515700

出　　处：《广东气象》2025年第1期16-20,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

摘　　要：基于1967-2022年粤东地区20个国家级气象观测站的逐月气温、降水资料,采用标准降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、游程理论、经验正交函数、干旱频率和强度等方法,分析了粤东地区干旱特征。结果表明:粤东地区进入21世纪后,干旱波动加剧,干旱程度越来越重,其中2020-2021年是干旱发展最强、持续时间也最长的一次过程。粤东地区干旱平均强度为中旱,平均频率为28%;重度干旱、极端干旱事件发生可能性较小,北部干旱强度较南部强。粤东地区极容易发生干旱,但是出现连续4个月以上干旱的可能性较小,仅潮州、汕头地区相对较频繁,每10~20 a出现一次。干旱的主要变化特征为一致变旱或变涝,汕头和潮州干旱震荡显著,具有相对不稳定性;第二特征为南北反相变化,与干旱频率、干旱平均强度分布特征高度相似,反相分界线与粤东地区地形中的山脉走向一致。Based on the monthly data of temperature and precipitation from 20 national meteorological observation stations in eastern Guangdong from 1967 to 2022,this paper employed the methods of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),run theory,Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF),drought frequency and intensity to study the drought characteristics in this part of the province.The results are shown as follows.Since the start of the 21st century,droughts have fluctuated by larger amplitudes and developed more seriously in eastern Guangdong,particularly in 2020 and 2021 when one of them was the most intense and lasted for the longest duration.Droughts took place at an average frequency of 28%and with an average of moderate severity.It was less likely for serious or extreme droughts to happen.Droughts were stronger in the north part than in the south.Although droughts were common in eastern Guangdong,it was unlikely for them to occur for more than four consecutive months,except for the areas of Chaozhou and Shantou where there were droughts with such long duration every 10 to 20 years.Most importantly,while the droughts were characterized by uniformly getting dry or wet,they fluctuated significantly in Chaozhou and Shantou,being relatively unstable.As the secondary feature,droughts were inversely changing between north and south,which was highly similar to the distribution pattern of the frequency and average intensity of the droughts.The anti-phase boundary was aligned with the mountain range in eastern Guangdong.

关 键 词：气候学 干旱 标准降水蒸散指数(SPEI) 游程理论 经验正交函数(EOF) 粤东地区 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]