渭河流域近30年气象水文要素的特征分析  

Analysis of the Characteristics of Meteorological and Hydrological Elements for the Past 30 Years in the Basin of Weihe River

作　　者：刘博文 张立平 王江伟 于晶 庞博 代光烁 LIU Bowen;ZHANG Liping;WANG Jiangwei;YU Jing;PANG Bo;DAI Guangshuo(Geovis Environment Technology Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100089;Beijing Huayun ShineTek Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中科星图维天信科技股份有限公司,北京100089 [2]北京华云星地通科技有限公司,北京100081

出　　处：《广东气象》2025年第1期30-34,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“下一代碳卫星及全球碳盘点科学产品与应用”(2023YFB3907400)。

摘　　要：基于渭河流域近30 a的气象水文数据,运用不均匀系数、M-K检验、R/S分析方法对渭河流域气象水文要素变化特征进行了研究,结果表明:渭河流域的气温年内变化相对稳定,降水和径流分配不均匀且变化大。流域内干旱期更干旱,雨季降水则更多。过去30 a,气温经历了不同阶段的波动与上升,年际变化率为0.25℃/(10 a);降水量增加趋势明显,年际变化率为34.87 mm/(10 a)。年径流量呈减小趋势,年际变化率为-31.68亿m^(3)/(10 a),但偶尔出现反弹。预测未来几年,气温和降水的年际变化趋势可能反转,而径流将保持一定的持续性;气温可能出现新的波动,降水可能趋于平稳或减少,而年径流量可能会持续减少。Based on the meteorological and hydrological data for the basin of Weihe River for the past 30 years(1991-2020)and with the use of such methods as nonuniformity coefficient,Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis,a comprehensive study was performed for the variations of the meteorological and hydrological elements.The results are shown as follows.For the basin of Weihe River,temperatures varied in a relatively stable way and rainfall and runoff were inhomogeneously distributed with large variation in the course of a year.It was drier in drought periods and wetter in rainy seasons.For the 30 years of interest,its temperatures experienced various fluctuating and ascending phases.The interannual variability of temperatures was 0.25℃/(10 years)and rainfall tended to increase significantly with an interannual rate of 34.87 mm/(10 years).The annual runoff tended to decrease at a rate of-3.168 billion m^(3)/(10 years),but increased again occasionally.It is predicted that the interannual variation trends of temperatures and rainfall may make a“U”turn in the few years to come while the runoff will be as very much the same as it is now.Temperatures may have fresh rounds of fluctuation,rainfall may tend to stabilize or decline,and the annual runoff may keep decreasing persistently.

关 键 词：气象水文 气温 降水 趋势性 持续性 渭河流域 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]