阳江市地闪密度与雷暴日数的关系  

Analysis of the Relationships between Cloud-to-ground Lightning Density and Number of Thunderstorm Days in Yangjiang

作　　者：吴华斌 王光波 曾宪逢 江山 WU Huabin;WANG Guangbo;ZENG Xianfeng;JIANG Shan(Yangjiang Meteorological Service,Yangjiang 529500)

机构地区：[1]阳江市气象局,广东阳江529500

出　　处：《广东气象》2025年第1期39-43,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：阳江市气象局气象科研项目“阳江市雷电地闪密度与雷暴日数的关系分析”(YJ2022B05)。

摘　　要：利用1964-2013年广东省86个地面气象站的人工观测雷暴数据和2007-2013年广东省雷电定位系统阳江地区的闪电定位数据,采用数理统计方法分析了雷暴日数t_(d)的分布特征及其与阳江市地闪密度N_(g)之间的关系。结果表明:广东省2007-2013年与1984-2013年的年平均雷暴日数无显著性差异,阳江站16km、阳春站7km半径范围内的N_(g)与t_(d)幂相关系数最大;按站点分别建立幂函数拟合方程比较适合阳江地区,其拟合效果通过0.05的显著性水平检验;在置信度99%下,绝对误差在±2.58S_(E)(剩余标准差)以内的准确率为100%,估算值可作为阳江市雷电防护装置设计和雷电灾害风险评估的参考。Using the data of manual thunderstorm observations from 86 surface weather stations across the Guangdong province in 1964-2013 and lightning positioning data for the area of Yangjiang by a provincial lightning positioning system in 2007-2013,this paper analyzed the relationships between the distribution characteristics of thunderstorm days(t_d)and the cloud-to-ground lightning density(N_g)in the city using the mathematical statistics method.The results are shown as follows.For Guangdong,there is no significant difference in the number of annual average thunderstorm days between the years 2007-2013 and the years 1984-2013,and the power correlation coefficient between N_g and t_(d) is the maximum within a radius of 16 km for the station of Yangjiang and a radius of 7 km for the station of Yangchun.A power function fitting equation,established by individual observation stations,is most suitable for the area of Yangjiang with the fitting effect passing the test of 0.05 significance level.For a 99%confidence level,the accuracy is 100%with an absolute error within±2.58S_E(residual standard deviation).The estimated values thus obtained can be used as reference in the design of lightning protection device and the assessment of lightning-inflicted risks for Yangjiang.

关 键 词：地闪密度 雷暴日 克里金插值法 剩余标准差 阳江市 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]