区域城市韧性动态演化特征与阻力分析——以安徽省为例  

Dynamic evolution characteristics and resistance analysis of regional urban resilience a case study of Anhui Province

作　　者：李梦雪 王建民[1] 齐林 LI Mengxue;WANG Jianmin;QI Lin(School of Economics and Management Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan Anhui 232001 China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《河北环境工程学院学报》2025年第1期42-49,共8页Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：安徽省高校优秀科研创新团队项目(2023AH010026);淮南市建设“七个强市”规划重点课题(2024007)。

摘　　要：剖析城市韧性水平发展的变化趋势与内在逻辑,对于提升区域综合抵御风险能力、优化资源配置及推动可持续发展具有重要意义。构建涵盖社会、经济、生态、制度及基础设施的复合系统评价框架,并以达到纳什均衡为目的,采用博弈论思想耦合熵权法和CRITIC法计算各指标权重,同时结合核密度图、阻力模型及空间马尔可夫转移矩阵,探究安徽省城市韧性的时空分布特征、阻力因子及动态演变趋势。结果表明:安徽省城市韧性水平总体呈上升趋势,合肥市韧性水平远高于其他城市;生态维度阻力占主导地位;未来安徽省城市韧性水平持续提升,邻域背景对城市韧性水平具有异质性影响。Analyzing the changing trend and internal logic of urban resilience level development is of great significance for improving regional comprehensive risk resistance ability optimizing re-source allocation and promoting sustainable development.To construct a composite system evalua-tion framework covering society economy ecology system and infrastructure and to achieve Nash equilibrium the game theory coupled entropy weight method and CRITIC method are used to cal-culate the weight of each index and at the same time the kernel density map resistance model and spatial Markov transfer matrix are combined.To explore the spatial and temporal distribution cha-racteristics resistance factors and dynamic evolution trend of urban resilience in Anhui Province.The results show that The urban resilience level of Anhui Province is on the rise and the urban resi-lience level of Hefei City is much higher than that of other cities.Ecological resistance is dominant.The urban resilience level of Anhui Province will continue to improve in the future and the neigh-borhood background will have a heterogeneous effect on the evolution of urban resilience level.

关 键 词：城市韧性 博弈论 阻力因子 空间马尔可夫链 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]