基于供需适应性分析的综合交通基础设施发展研究  

Development of Integrated Transport Infrastructure Based on Supply-Demand Adaptability Analysis

作　　者：李茜[1] 卢春房 陆化普[3] 张永波[3] 桂嘉伟 Li Qian;Lu Chunfang;Lu Huapu;Zhang Yongbo;Gui Jiawei(Institute of Comprehensive Transportation,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100038,China;Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China;Institute of Transportation Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会综合运输研究所,北京100038 [2]中国工程院,北京100088 [3]清华大学交通研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2025年第1期216-225,共10页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“综合交通运输体系效率提升战略”(2022-PP-06)。

摘　　要：综合交通基础设施是综合交通运输体系的组成部分,是经济社会发展的先行资本,是交通强国建设的硬件基础。本文立足交通强国战略背景,梳理了我国综合交通运输发展的现状、问题,运用利用率指标,系统量化分析了铁路、公路、水运、民航的供需适应性,提出了综合交通基础设施发展的目标方向、建设重点和对策建议。研究认为,我国综合交通基础设施已基本适应经济社会发展,但是距离《国家综合立体交通网规划纲要》提出的“交通运输全面适应人民日益增长的美好生活需要”还存在差距;在不同运输方式中,适应性不足的有民航、城际铁路、普通国道。结合综合交通基础设施的适应性分析,明晰了综合交通基础设施的发展思路、建设重点,提出了优化综合交通基础设施需求评估机制、项目立项决策机制、强化一体规划建设统筹机制等对策建议,为综合交通基础设施高质量发展提供参考。The comprehensive transport infrastructure is an important component of the comprehensive transport system and is vital for economic and social development.This study reviews the current situation and problems of comprehensive transport development in China,quantifies the supply-demand adaptability of railways,highways,water transport,and civil aviation by using the utilization index,and proposes the development direction,construction focus,and policy suggestions for the transport infrastructure.The research indicates that China’s transport infrastructure can basically adapt to economic and social development,but still cannot“fully adapt to people’s growing needs for a better life”,a target proposed in the Planning Outline for a Comprehensive National Transport Network.Among the different modes of transport,civil aviation,intercity railways,and common national highways are the ones with insufficient adaptability.Combined with the adaptability analysis of the infrastructure,this study clarifies the ideas and focuses of transport infrastructure construction and proposes to optimize the demand assessment,project decision,and integrated planning and construction mechanisms of the comprehensive transport infrastructure.

关 键 词：综合交通基础设施 适应性分析 铁路 公路 水运 民航 

分 类 号：U116.1[交通运输工程] F512.3[经济管理—产业经济]