县域国土空间时空格局演变的元胞自动机模型类比研究  

The Analogy of Cellular Automata Model for the Evolution of the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Use in the County Area

作　　者：闫旭 张晓瑞[2] 董洁云 YAN Xu;ZHANG Xiaorui;DONG Jieyun(Anhui Urban&Rural Planning Design&Research Institute,Hefei 230041,China;Laboratory of Digital Human Habitat Studies,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省城乡规划设计研究院有限公司,安徽合肥230041 [2]合肥工业大学数字与人居环境研究实验室,安徽合肥230000

出　　处：《城市勘测》2025年第1期38-45,共8页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJA760091)。

摘　　要：为探究各类土地利用格局演变模拟预测模型对县级行政区域进行模拟与优化的适应程度和各自特征,采用以基于纯净地理元胞自动机的FLUS、PLUS模型以及基于混合亚元胞的MCCA模型对同一县级行政区域进行国土空间格局演变模拟,通过以上3类模型对土地利用转移机制的挖掘、历史时期的模拟精度、未来时期的模拟优化情况及精度验证结果,表明FLUS模型在预测中微观尺度区域及特定场景下的精度可能高于PLUS,但在类似跳跃式、飞地型发展的预测则明显弱于PLUS模型,MCCA模型则在各类模拟中总体表现较好。In order to explore the adaptation degree and respective characteristics of various LUCC models to simulate and optimize county-level administrative regions,FLUS and PLUS models based on pure geographic Cellular Automata and MCCA model based on Mixed Subcellular are adopted to simulate the evolution of territorial spatial pattern in the same county-level administrative region.Through the mining of land use transfer mechanism,simulation accuracy in historical period,simulation optimization in future period,and accuracy verification results of the above three types of models,it is shown that the accuracy of FLUS model may be higher than PLUS model in the prediction of micro-scale areas and specific scenarios,but it is obviously weaker than PLUS model in the prediction of similar leap-type and enclave development.The MCCA model performs well in all kinds of simulations.

关 键 词：土地覆被变化 FLUS PLUS MCCA 逻辑回归 MARKOV 格局优化 来安县 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]