农业节水设施PPP项目风险分担博弈研究  

Game research on risk sharing in PPP projects of agricultural water-saving facilities

作　　者：王一 王艳伟[1] 黄宜 WANG Yi;WANG Yanwei;HUANG Yi(College of Architecture and Engineering,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming Yunnan 650201,China;College of Economics and Management,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming Yunnan 650201,China)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学建筑工程学院,云南昆明650201 [2]云南农业大学经济管理学院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《农业工程》2025年第1期133-139,共7页AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72261035);云南省应用基础研究农业联合专项面上项目(202101BD070001-061);云南省应用基础研究农业联合专项(202401BD070001-065)。

摘　　要：农业节水设施政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目的成功实施有利于提高农田灌溉效率,降低农业生产成本,对农业可持续发展、促进乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。为探究农业节水设施PPP项目实施过程中风险的合理分担问题,基于农业节水设施PPP项目中参与主体的策略选择,运用演化博弈和Matlab软件对农业节水设施PPP项目中参与方的战略选择及其决策的影响因素进行分析,探究其演化稳定性,并以仿真得出的结果为依照,提出促进农村节水设施PPP项目建设及运营的相关对策和建议。结果表明,提高社会资本方不承担风险策略的成本会导致社会资本方采取承担风险策略的意愿提升;低程度的奖励会使得公众方承担风险的意愿降低。Successful implementation of public-private-partnership(PPP)project of agricultural water-saving facilities is conducive to improving efficiency of farmland irrigation and reducing agricultural production costs,which is of great significance for sustainable de-velopment of agriculture and rural revitalization strategy promotion.To explore reasonable risk sharing in implementation process of PPP projects for agricultural water-saving facilities,based on strategic choice of participants in PPP projects of agricultural water-saving facil-ities,strategic choice of participants and influencing factors of their decision-making in PPP projects of agricultural water-saving facilit-ies were analyzed by using evolutionary game and Matlab software to explore its evolutionary stability.According to simulation results,relevant countermeasures and suggestions to promote construction and operation of PPP projects of rural water-saving facilities were put forward.Conclusions showed that increasing cost of non-risk-taking strategy of social capital would lead to an increase in social capital’s willingness to adopt risk-taking strategy.And a low level of reward would make public less willing to take risks.

关 键 词：农业节水设施 PPP项目 演化博弈 风险分担 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程]