城市数字化转型与社会矛盾风险源头治理——基于认知、序列与场景的分析  

Urban Digital Transformation and Source Governance of Social Conflict Risks--Analysis Based on Cognition,Sequence and Scenario

作　　者：任勇[1] 郑延瑾 REN Yong;ZHENG Yanjin(School of Government,East China University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai,201260,China;School of Public Administration,Gansu University of Political Science and Law,Lanzhou,Gansu,730070,China)

机构地区：[1]华东政法大学政府管理学院,上海201260 [2]甘肃政法大学公共管理学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《行政论坛》2025年第1期114-128,共15页Administrative Tribune

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“加强党的领导与城市社区公共安全治理研究”(22FZZB017);上海市教委科研创新人文社会科学重大项目“长三角地区新型智慧城市建设中的风险防范与社会稳定研究”(2023科技05-22);甘肃省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“甘肃推进主动创安主动创稳实践经验总结和长效机制构建研究”(2024YB-086);甘肃政法大学校级重点科研项目“新时代‘枫桥经验’赋能甘肃基层社会治理现代化的路径研究”(GSZF2023XZD10)。

摘　　要：以城市数字化转型推动社会矛盾风险源头治理完善已成为各级政府的重要选择。作为当前社会治理的两大核心议题,城市数字化转型与社会矛盾风险源头治理二者之间存在复杂而深刻的关系张力,并且共同作用于城市发展过程中。本文基于“认知-序列-场景”分析框架,结合上海的实践经验,透视城市数字化转型的复合意涵及其对社会矛盾风险源头治理的多维影响。研究发现,城市数字化转型在社会矛盾风险源头治理中的作用逻辑主要体现在风险认知、序列分析和场景更新等方面,其中,风险认知是进行风险防范的天然基础,序列分析是实施风险管控的前提条件,场景更新是化解风险隐患的运作空间。推进社会矛盾风险源头治理需要在提升公众风险认知水平的同时,根据风险要素逻辑与层级序列图谱,不断增强技术赋能场景化治理的能力。Urban digital transformation has become an important choice for governments at all levels to promote the improvement of the source governance of social conflict risks.As the two core issues of current social governance,there is a complex and profound tension between urban digital transformation and the source governance of social conflict risks,which jointly affect the development of cities.Based on the"cognition-sequence-scenario"analytical framework,combining Shanghai's practical experience to explore the complex implications of urban digital transformation and its multidimensional impact on the source governance of social conflict risks.It is found that the role logic of urban digital transformation in the source governance of social conflict risks is mainly reflected in the aspects of risk cognition,sequence analysis and scenario update,in which risk cognition is the natural foundation for risk prevention,sequence analysis is the prerequisite for the implementation of risk management and control,and scenario update is the operational space for the dissolution of hidden risks.To promote the source governance of social conflict risks,it is necessary to enhance the public's level of risk cognition,and continuously strengthening the ability of technology-enabled scenario-based governance based on the logic and hierarchical sequence mapping of risk elements.

关 键 词：数字化转型 城市治理 社会矛盾风险 源头治理 

分 类 号：D630.8[政治法律—政治学] F291[政治法律—中外政治制度] TP18[经济管理—国民经济]