未来海平面变化对红树林空间分布的影响分析——以深圳市为例  

Analysis of the Impact of Future Sea Level Changes on the Spatial Distribution of Mangrove Forests:A Case Study of Shenzhen City

作　　者：褚艳玲 张千湖 张丽[3] 邓艺林 王石 CHU Yan-ling;ZHANG Qian-hu;ZHANG Li;DENG Yi-lin;WANG Shi(PKU-HKUST Shenzhen-Hong Kong lnstitution(Industry.Education.Research),Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China;Lvpeng Environmental Technology(Shenzhen)Co.,Ltd,Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China;Shenzhen National Climate Observatory,Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]深港产学研基地(北京大学香港科技大学深圳研修院),广东深圳518000 [2]绿鹏环境科技(深圳)有限公司,广东深圳518000 [3]深圳市国家气候观象台,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《湿地科学与管理》2025年第1期19-25,51,共8页Wetland Science & Management

摘　　要：探明海平面变化对红树林分布的影响,对红树林保护与可持续利用具有重要意义。以深圳市沿海地区红树林为研究对象,结合边界预测模型与情景分析法,计算并分析了2020—2120年期间未来海平面上升情景下深圳湾和珠江口区域红树林的空间分布及其面积变化。结果表明:未来海平面变化对深圳红树林面积及群落结构均存在影响。在当前潮滩淤积速率情况下,未来全球海平面上升0.55 m和0.70 m情景下,深圳红树林面积分别增加29.3%和5.0%,各潮位的红树植物均可能向海迁移;未来全球海平面上升0.87 m和0.98 m情景下,深圳红树林面积分别减少21.3%和41.7%,红树林向陆地扩展受到堤岸阻碍,可能导致低中潮位红树植物分布面积减少,高潮带红树植物则可能减少甚至消失。Understanding the impact of sea level changes on the distribution of mangrove forests is of great significance for the protection and sustainable use of mangroves.The mangroves in coastal areas of Shenzhen were studied by combining the boundary prediction model and scenario analysis method to calculate and analyze the spatial distribution and area change of mangroves in Shenzhen bay and Pearl River estuary under the scenario of future sea level rise during 2020-2120.The results indicate that future sea level changes will have an impact on the area and community structure of mangrove forests in Shenzhen.Under the current sedimentation rate of tidal flats,the global sea level will rise by 0.55m and 0.70 m in the future,and the mangrove area in Shenzhen will be increased by 29.3% and 5.0% respectively.Mangrove plants at all tide levels may migrate to the sea;Under the scenarios of global sea level rise of 0.87 m and 0.98 m in the future,the area of mangrove forests in Shenzhen will be decreased by 21.3% and 41.7% respectively.The expansion of mangrove forests to land may be hindered by embankments,which may lead to a reduction in the distribution area of mangrove plants at low to medium tide levels,and a decrease or even disappearance of mangrove plants at high tide zones.

关 键 词：红树林 海平面变化 边界预测模型 情景分析 潮滩淤积速率 

分 类 号：S718.55[农业科学—林学]