考虑时空滞后性的广义分布动态学模型修正及应用  

Correction and Application of the Generalized Distribution Dynamics Model Considering Spatiotemporal Lag

作　　者：安博文 许培源[1] 孙明松 An Bowen;Xu Peiyuan;Sun Mingsong(College of Economics and Finance,Huaqiao University,Quanzhou Fujian 362021,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《统计与决策》2025年第4期40-45,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BJY008);德阳市哲学社会科学规划专项课题(DY25ZX058)。

摘　　要：为从时间、空间和时空维度刻画发展水平的分布演进与收敛性特征,文章沿用时间β收敛模型与核密度估计的基本形式,基于梯度理论与协同效应重构空间β收敛模型和时空β收敛模型,建立与之对应的核密度估计形式,并以2006—2021年中国天然气绿色效率的时空分布演进与敛散性为例验证了方法的可行性和实用性。研究结果表明:时间特征显示,中国天然气绿色效率增长势头强劲,当期效率水平增速快于后期;空间特征显示,中国天然气绿色效率存在两极分化现象,后发地区效率水平增速快于发达地区;时空特征显示,相邻地区天然气绿色效率差距不断扩大,但当期邻近地区发展差距扩大幅度小于前期邻近地区。In order to depict the distribution evolution and convergence characteristics of development level from time,space,and spatiotemporal dimensions,this paper adopts the basic form of the time β convergence model and kernel density estimation,and relies on the gradient theory and synergistic effect to reconstruct the spatial β convergence model and the spatiotemporal β convergence model,and then established the corresponding kernel density estimation forms.Finally,the paper takes the spatial and temporal distribution evolution and convergence of natural gas green efficiency in China from 2006 to 2021as an example to verify the feasibility and practicability of the method.The research findings are shown as follows:From the temporal perspective,China’s natural gas green efficiency has shown strong growth momentum,with the current efficiency growth rate being higher than in the later period.From the spatial perspective,there is a polarization phenomenon in China’s natural gas green efficiency,with less developed regions experiencing a higher growth rate in efficiency than developed regions.From the spatiotemporal perspective,the gap in natural gas green efficiency between neighboring regions continues to widen,although the expansion of development disparities between neighboring regions in the current period is smaller than in the previous period.

关 键 词：β收敛模型 核密度估计 时间滞后性 空间滞后性 时空滞后性 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]