我国东部地区普惠型养老负担能力综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation of the affordability of inclusive elderly care in eastern China

作　　者：张悦 郝玉玺 唐笠岷 陈祥华 董复宗 ZHANG Yue;HAO Yu-xi;TANG Li-min;CHEN Xiang-hua;DONG Fu-zong

机构地区：[1]山东省慢性病医院,山东青岛266000 [2]青岛市第八人民医院,山东青岛266000 [3]青岛大学附属医院,山东青岛266000 [4]青岛市市立医院,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《中国疗养医学》2025年第3期13-17,共5页Chinese Journal of Convalescent Medicine

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划重大委托项目(21AWTJ08)。

摘　　要：目的探究我国东部地区普惠型养老负担能力差异,探索养老负担指标权重。方法采用熵权TOPSIS法与AISM模型相结合,将熵权TOPSIS法结果构建矩阵纳入AISM模型,进行可视化处理。结果前3位指标分别是不提供住宿的固定资产原价、不提供住宿的累计年末全托照料服务人数以及不提供住宿的累计社区养老服务次数;普惠型养老负担能力最优省份为江苏,而最劣省市为天津和海南。另外,浙江、广东、广西、辽宁和福建这5个省份的普惠型养老负担能力也在逐步减弱。结论产出指标优于投入指标,不提供住宿的固定资产原价占主导地位;南方地区优于北方地区,沿海地区优于内陆地区,且地区之间差异较大;人口、气候、经济结构类型、机构利用率等问题是部分普惠型养老负担能力弱的原因。Objective To explore the difference of the affordability of inclusive elderly care in eastern China and explore the weight of care burden index.Methods The entropy weight TOPSIS method was combined with the AISM model.The results of the entropy weight TOPSIS method was constructed into a matrix and incorporated into the AISM model for visualization.Results The first three indicators were the original price of fixed assets without accommodation,the cumulative number of total care services at the end of the year without accommodation,and the cumulative number of community elderly care services without accommodation.The province with the best affordability for inclusive elderly care was Jiangsu,while the provinces with the worst affordability were Tianjin and Hainan.In addition,the affordability of inclusive elderly care in five provinces and alike-Zhejiang,Guangdong,Guangxi,Liaoning and Fujian,were also gradually weakening.Conclusion The output index is better than the input index,and the original price of fixed assets without accommodation is dominant.The southern region is better than the northern region,the coastal region is better than the inland region,and the difference between regions is large.Population,climate,economic structure type,institutional utilization rate and other problems are some of the reasons for the weak affordability of inclusive elderly care.

关 键 词：普惠型养老 负担能力评价 熵权TOPSIS法 AISM模型 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F719[政治法律—中外政治制度]