基于最大熵模型预测食蚊鱼在江苏的潜在地理分布  

Predicting Potential Geographical Distribution of Gambusia Affinis in Jiangsu Province Using MaxEnt Model

作　　者：李大命[1] 代培 俞雅文 刘燕山 钟立强[1] 王超群 LI Daming;DAI Pei;YU Yawen;LIU Yanshan;ZHONG Liqiang;WANG Chaoqun(Key Laboratory of Fisheries Resources in Inland Waters of Jiangsu Province,Freshwater Fisheries Research Institute of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210017,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省淡水水产研究所,江苏省内陆水域渔业资源重点实验室,江苏南京210017

出　　处：《水产养殖》2025年第2期1-6,共6页Journal of Aquaculture

基　　金：2023年度省级单位项目-外来入侵物种普查(水生生物)(2023-SJ-113);渔业生态与资源监测(2023-SJ-138)。

摘　　要：基于最大熵模型(Maximum Entropy Model,MaxEnt),预测食蚊鱼在江苏的适宜分布区及主导环境因子。结果显示,MaxEnt模型准确度较高(AUC=0.887),影响食蚊鱼分布的主要因子有年均温(Bio1)、最干季节平均温度(Bio9)、等温性(Bio3)和最湿季节平均温度(Bio8)。食蚊鱼在江苏潜在分布面积为5.20×10^(4) km^(2),主要分布在长江流域及淮河流域南部区域,高风险区、中风险区、低风险区面积分别为1.59×10^(4)、1.72×10^(4)和1.88×10^(4) km^(2)。指出,未来随着全球气候的变暖,食蚊鱼的扩散风险加剧,必须加强对食蚊鱼的管控。In the present research,the suitable distribution areas of G.affinis and its dominant environmental factors were predicted based on the Maximum Entropy model.The results showed that the MaxEnt model had high accuracy(AUC=0.887),and the main factors affecting the distribution of G.affinis were annual mean temperature(Bio1),mean temperature of driest quarter(Bio9),isothermality(Bio3),and mean temperature of wettest quarter(Bio8).The potential distribution area of G.affinis in Jiangsu Province was 5.20×10^(4) km^(2),and they were mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Basin and the southern regions of Huai River Basin.The high risk,medium risk,and low risk areas were 1.59×10^(4),1.72×10^(4) and 1.88×10^(4) km^(2),respectively.Furthermore,it is predicted that under the future global climate change,the spreading risk of G.affinis in Jiangsu Province will increase,and it is necessary to take more measures to strengthen the prevention and control of G.affinis.

关 键 词：食蚊鱼 MaxEnt模型 生物入侵 潜在分布 江苏省 

分 类 号：S931.1[农业科学—渔业资源]