Predicting Human Reliability for Shore-based LNG Bunkering Operation Process on Tanker Ships Using SLIM and Improved Z-numbers  

基于SLIM与改进Z-numbers方法的油轮岸基LNG加注过程中的人员可靠性预测

作　　者：Murat Mert Tekeli Seher Suendam Arici Sukru Ilke Sezer Emre Akyuz Paolo Gardoni 

机构地区：[1]Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering,Istanbul Technical University,Tuzla 34940,Istanbul,Türkiye [2]Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering,Iskenderun Technical University,Iskenderun 31200,Hatay,Türkiye [3]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Urbana,IL,61801,USA

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报(英文版)》2024年第4期914-926,共13页Journal of Marine Science and Application

摘　　要：With the increasing utilization of liquefied natural gas(LNG)as a marine fuel,the safety and reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations have become vital concerns.Human factors are crucial to the successful execution of these operations.However,predicting human reliability in such complex scenarios remains challenging.This paper focuses on the prediction of human reliability analysis(HRA)for shorebased LNG bunkering operations on tanker ships to address the aforementioned gap.Practical approaches to predicting HRA under the success likelihood index method(SLIM)and an improved Z-numbers approach are both adopted in this paper.SLIM provides a powerful tool to calculate human error,while the improved Z-numbers can address uncertainty and improve the reliability of qualitative expert judgments.Results show that the reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations is 0.861.In addition to its robust theoretical contribution,this research provides substantial practical contributions to LNG ship owners,ship superintendents,safety inspectors,and shore-based and ship crew for enhancing safety at the operational level and efficiency of shore-based LNG bunkering operations.

关 键 词：LNG bunkering operation Success likelihood index method Improved Z-numbers Human reliability 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]