“隐性利率走廊”下的货币政策调控效果检验与政策权重优化研究  

Feedback of Monetary Regulation Effect and Optimization Strategy of Monetary Regulation under the“Hidden Interest Rate Corridor”in China

作　　者：王毅铭 宋洋 刘文轩 Wang Yiming;Song Yang;Liu Wenxuan(School of Accounting,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116012,China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Economics and Management,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学会计学院,辽宁大连116012 [2]西南财经大学财政税务学院,四川成都611130 [3]吉林农业大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2024年第4期168-190,共23页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“跨周期和逆周期结合下的金融安全维护研究”(22JJD790066);中央高校哲学社会科学研究创新团队项目“坚持共同富裕方向的中国经济高质量发展现代化道路研究”(2022CXTD25);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“中国经济周期测度的学理思辨与计量评价”(2022-JCXK-36)的联合资助。

摘　　要：本文对中国“隐性利率走廊”的试行效果进行了系统评估,并就如何正式构建“利率走廊”机制提出了优化预案。研究显示,第一,从调控效果的角度来看,中国“隐性利率走廊”已初步发挥出降低市场利率波动、提高货币政策调控效率的基本作用,但也存在产出端调控效率欠佳的缺陷;第二,从基准利率选择的角度来看,相较于R007与Shibor1W,DR007的市场化特性更加鲜明,且锚定DR007进行货币操作具有更高的传导效率,DR007更适合作为我国“利率走廊”制度下的政策基准利率;第三,从政策权重分配的角度来看,现阶段稳定实体经济和政策信誉均十分重要,中央银行应平等看待通胀、产出以及利率的变化,这有利于避免较大的福利损失,是对优化“利率走廊”调控的有益尝试。This paper systematically evaluates the trial implementation effect of China's“Hid⁃den Interest Rate Corridor”and proposes a series of ideas and optimization strategies for the formal establishment of the“interest rate corridor”mechanism in China in the future.The re⁃search shows that:First,from the perspective of regulation effect feedback,China's“Hidden Interest Rate Corridor”has initially played a fundamental role in reducing market interest rate volatility and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation,but there are also de⁃fects in the efficiency of output-side regulation.Second,from the perspective of selecting benchmark interest rates in the money market,compared to R007 and Shibor1W,DR007 has a more distinctive market-oriented characteristic,and anchoring DR007 for monetary opera⁃tions has higher transmission efficiency.Therefore,DR007 is more suitable as the policy benchmark interest rate under China's“Interest Rate Corridor”system.Third,from the per⁃spective of policy weight allocation,dynamic simulation results show that at this stage,stabili⁃zing the real economy and policy credibility are both crucial.At this time,central bank should treat changes in inflation,output,and interest rate volatility equally.This is a beneficial at⁃tempt to avoid serious social welfare costs and optimize the efficiency of“interest rate corridor”regulation.

关 键 词：“利率走廊” 货币市场基准利率 政策信誉成本 政策权重分配 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]