2011-2022年新疆叶城县肺结核发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析  

The incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County,Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022

作　　者：陈志斐 买吾拉江·依马木 穆妮热·克日木 张利萍 郑彦玲 Chen Zhifei;Maiwulajiang Yimamu;Munire Kerimu;Zhang Liping;Zheng Yanling(Dept of Mathematics Teaching and Research,School of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017;Kashgar District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Xinjiang,Kashgar 844000;Dept of Epidemiology and Statistics,School of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院数学教研室,乌鲁木齐830017 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区喀什地区疾病预防控制中心,喀什844000 [3]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与统计学教研室,乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《安徽医科大学学报》2025年第2期326-331,共6页Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:72174175、72163033)。

摘　　要：目的分析2011—2022年新疆叶城县肺结核发病率变化趋势及年龄、时期和出生队列效应对肺结核发病率的影响,为当地肺结核防控工作提供新的理论参考。方法基于2011—2022年新疆叶城县肺结核新发病例登记报告数据,采用连接点回归模型计算粗发病率、年龄标准化发病率、年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)来描述肺结核发病的流行变化趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型探讨年龄、时期和出生队列效应对肺结核发病率趋势变化的影响。结果2011—2022年新疆叶城县肺结核共登记新发病例17057例,粗发病率和标准化发病率分别为416.07/100000和496.01/100000。12年间肺结核发病率总体呈现先上升后下降趋势,其中2011—2018年呈上升趋势,总人群、男性和女性肺结核标准化发病率的APC值分别为24.42%(95%CI:11.55~38.78)、27.24%(95%CI:12.35~44.10)和21.79%(95%CI:9.81~35.09);2018—2022年呈下降趋势,总人群、男性和女性肺结核标准化发病率的APC值分别为-38.51%(95%CI:-53.27~-19.09)、-38.18%(95%CI:-54.59~-15.85)和-38.73%(95%CI:-52.96~-20.19)。随着年龄的增加,肺结核发病率总体呈现先上升后平稳波动的变化趋势。人群发病风险随着时期推移呈现先上升后下降的趋势,越晚出生的队列发病风险越低。结论新疆叶城县12年来肺结核发病率呈现先上升后下降的趋势,且随年龄的增加逐渐上升,越早出生的人发病风险越高。男性和老年人群是新疆叶城县肺结核防治的重点对象,建议加强对重点人群的筛查工作。Objective To analyze the trend of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022 and the influence of age,period and birth cohort effect on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis,so as to provide a new theoretical reference for the prevention and control of local pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods Based on the registration data of new pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Yecheng County,Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022,the connection point regression model was used to calculate the crude incidence rate,age-standardized incidence rate,annual percentage change(APC),and average annual percentage change(AAPC)to describe the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis.The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the influence of age,period and birth cohort effect on the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence.Results From 2011 to 2022,a total of 17057 new cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were registered in Yecheng County,Xinjiang.The crude incidence and standardized incidence were 416.07/100000 and 496.01/100000,respectively.The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased first and then decreased during the 12 years,with an upward trend from 2011 to 2018.The APC values of the standardized incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the total population,males and females were 24.42%(95%CI:11.55-38.78),27.24%(95%CI:12.35-44.10)and 21.79%(95%CI:9.81-35.09),respectively.From 2018 to 2022,there was a downward trend.The APC values of the standardized incidence of tuberculosis in the total population,males and females were-38.51%(95%CI:-53.27--19.09),-38.18%(95%CI:-54.59--15.85)and-38.73%(95%CI:-52.96--20.19),respectively.With the increase of age,the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a trend of rising first and then fluctuating steadily.The risk of the population increased first and then decreased over time,and the later the birth,the lower the risk of the cohort.Conclusion The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yecheng County of Xinjiang showed a trend of increasing first and then decrea

关 键 词：肺结核 趋势分析 连接点回归模型 年龄-时期-队列模型 发病 新疆叶城县 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学] R183.3[医药卫生—临床医学]