基于区间Fisher最优分割法的汛期分期研究  

Research on flood season dividing based on interval Fisher optimal segmentation method

作　　者：林家慧 李俊[3] LIN Jiahui;LI Jun(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plateau Wetland Conservation,Restoration and Ecological Services,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,China;School of Ecology,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学环境科学与工程学院,海南海口570228 [2]西南林业大学云南省高原湿地保护修复与生态服务重点实验室,云南昆明650224 [3]海南大学生态学院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《人民长江》2025年第2期91-98,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：云南省高原湿地保护修复与生态服务重点实验室开放基金项目(202105AG070002);海南省自然科学基金项目(423QN211)。

摘　　要：汛限水位动态控制调度是有效地进行水资源管理的重要途径,而科学的汛期分期是实现这一目标的关键。针对汛期分期中传统的Fisher最优分割法分期指标不确定性及分期方案单一这两点不足,提出区间Fisher最优分割法。该方法结合了分位数与区间数理论,利用分位数间距表示分期指标,改进传统Fisher分期方法的不足;以金沙江石鼓水文站1982~2018年逐日日均径流量数据为基础,使用改进方法对其进行汛期划分,并基于TOPSIS法将区间Fisher与传统Fisher及集对分析法进行对比分析,评价其模型的分期性能。结果表明:在不同上分位数下的分期结果分别为,0.999999上分位数主汛期为6月20日至9月22日、0.8上分位数主汛期为6月25日至9月27日、0.75上分位数主汛期为6月23日至10月4日、0.6上分位数主汛期为6月23日至10月5日,分期结果合理可信;同时TOPSIS法分析结果表明,区间Fisher分期方案与对比模型相比具有优越性。区间Fisher最优分割法提升了分期结果的可靠性且具有较高的灵活性与适用性,可为汛期分期研究提供合理的理论依据。The dynamic regulation and scheduling of flood limit water levels are crucial for effective water resource management,which highly depends on scientific flood season dividing.However,traditional Fisher optimal segmentation methods have two significant shortcomings,uncertainty in the dividing indicators and the single scheme alternative.To address these limitations,an interval Fisher optimal segmentation method is proposed.This method combines quantile and interval theory,using quantile intervals to represent dividing indicators and thereby improving the traditional Fisher dividing methods.Based on daily average runoff data from the Shigu Hydrological Station on the Jinsha River,spanning 1982 to 2018,the improved method was utilized to divide the flood season of the Jinsha River,and a TOPSIS method was employed to compare the improved method against traditional Fisher and set pair analysis methods.The results show that:the primary flood period extends from June 20 to September 22 under the 0.999999 quantile;from June 25 to September 27 under the 0.8 quantile;from June 23 to October 4 under the 0.75 quantile;from June 23 to October 5 under the 0.6 quantile.These results are reasonable and reliable.Furthermore,the TOPSIS analysis results indicate that the interval Fisher deviding scheme outperforms the contrast model.Overall,the findings demonstrate that the interval Fisher enhances reliability of flood season dividing results and offers high flexibility and applicability,providing a solid theoretical foundation for flood season deviding research.

关 键 词：汛期分期 区间数 区间Fisher最优分割法 TOPSIS法 金沙江 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]