收缩型中小城市人口结构变迁趋势及其类型学研究  

Trends and Typologies of Population Structure Changes in Shrinking Small and Medium-sized Cities

作　　者：陈浩[1] 孟欣怡 陈友华[2] CHEN Hao;MENG Xin-yi;CHEN You-hua(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangshu 210023,China;School of Social and Behavioral Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangshu 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,南京210023 [2]南京大学社会学院,南京210023

出　　处：《西北人口》2025年第1期15-29,共15页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中小城市人口收缩态势与城市更新策略研究”(项目编号:22BRK026)。

摘　　要：探究人口结构变迁趋势及其多样化特征是深入理解收缩型城市发展特征及人口收缩对城市经济社会发展效应的重要基础。基于第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据识别收缩型中小城市,比较收缩型中小城市和发展条件相似的增长型中小城市人口结构指标之间的异同,研究发现收缩型中小城市人口表现为更高的老龄化、少子化、家庭小型化和适育人口减少,以及更低的城镇化增幅、一产就业降幅和二产就业增幅,是优势人口流失和低发展水平共塑的人口结构特征。进一步将2010~2020年间各城市人口的自然结构、家庭结构、地域结构与社会结构变化值作为考察指标,运用聚类分析法对收缩型中小城市人口结构变迁进行类型学研究。综合人口结构变迁、人口收缩特征与经济社会基本面指标分析,结果发现,全国收缩型中小城市样本可以归纳为“产业调整冲击收缩型城市”“发展滞后长期收缩型城市”“产业结构转型平稳收缩型城市”和“虹吸外迁良性收缩型城市”四种人口结构变化类型。研究发现不同类型的收缩型中小城市的人口结构会出现不同的问题,但大部分城市并未出现人口结构的整体性衰退,部分城市反而迎来经济较快增长、财政压力减轻和居民生活质量提升等正面效应。基于收缩型中小城市人口结构变迁的总体特征及内部差异,从总体和分类两个层次提出了应对不同人口结构变迁趋势的策略。Exploring the trend of population structure change and its diversification characteristics is an important basis for in-depth understanding of the development characteristics of shrinking cities and the effects of population shrinkage on urban economic and social development.Based on the data of the 6th and 7th National Population Censuses,the identification of shrinking small and medium-sized cities is carried out,and the similarities and differences between the population structure indicators of shrinking small and medium-sized cities and growing small and mediumsized cities with similar development conditions are compared,and the population of shrinking small and mediumsized cities is characterized by higher aging,declining birthrate,smaller families and less fertile population,as well as lower urbanization growth,primary industry employment decline and secondary industry employment growth,which are the demographic characteristics of the co-shaping of dominant population loss and low development level.Furthermore,the changes in the natural structure,family structure,regional structure and social structure of the population of each city during the period from the"Sixth Census"to the"Seventh Census"were taken as the investigation indicators,and the typological study of the population structure change of shrinking small and medium-sized cities was carried out by cluster analysis.Based on the analysis of demographic changes,population shrinkage characteristics and socio-economic fundamental conditions,it is found that the sample of shrinking small and medium-sized cities in China from 2010 to 2020 can be summarized into four types:"shrinking cities with industrial adjustment impact","long-term shrinking cities with lagging development","shrinking cities with stable industrial structure transformation"and"benign shrinking cities with siphon relocation".The study finds that the population structure of different types of shrinking small and medium-sized cities will have different problems,but most cities do not exper

关 键 词：人口负增长 收缩城市 人口结构 类型学 人口普查 规划应对 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]