人口负增长背景下中国式现代化面临的挑战与应对  

Challenges and Countermeasures of Chinese Modernization under the Background of Negative Population Growth

作　　者：汪世琦 李志萌[1] WANG Shi-qi;LI Zhi-meng(Institute of Development Strategy,Jiangxi Academy of Social Sciences,Nan Chang Jiangxi 330077,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省社会科学院发展战略研究所,南昌330077

出　　处：《西北人口》2025年第1期30-41,共12页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“新的人口再生产模式及其对社会经济影响研究”(项目编号:20ARK006)。

摘　　要：从人类历史的发展轨迹来看,人口负增长是工业化与现代化进程到达某个特定阶段时,难以规避的人口变化趋势及现象。在中国,随着现代化步伐的加速,2022年标志着人口增长进入了负区间。人口发展的转折与经济社会结构的转型紧密相连,并将在中国追求“第二个百年奋斗目标”的整个现代化进程中持续显现,需要准确把握、科学应对。基于中国发展新的历史方位,在梳理总结中国人口负增长特征的基础上,系统地分析了人口负增长形势下推进中国式现代化面临的挑战与应对策略。研究表明:中国人口负增长既有低生育率主导、人口规模持续收缩等各国人口负增长的共同特征,同时具有建立在人口规模巨大基础上,时间上高度压缩,与新一轮科技革命形成历史交汇,与跨越式现代化进程相互交叠等独有特征。人口负增长的这些特征带来了一系列经济社会文化和生态等挑战,诸如面临经济增长的供需两侧冲击、区域发展的不平衡加剧、传统优秀文化传承和发展受阻、经济开发与生态保护的矛盾凸显,影响我国国防安全和边境安全等。面对这些挑战,提出基于中国式现代化道路的特色定位,在充分激发人口规模巨大的优势与红利、优化人口空间配置、不断丰富人民精神生活和提高人民精神素质、促进人口与自然和谐共生、完善人口安全保障体系五个维度上采取措施,为现代化发展探索切实可行的应对方案。From the perspective of the development trajectory of human history,negative population growth is an inevitable trend and phenomenon of population change when industrialization and modernization reach a certain stage.In China,2022 marks the year population growth entered negative territory as the pace of modernization accelerates.The transition of population development is closely linked to the transformation of the economic and social structure,and will continue to emerge in the whole process of China's modernization in pursuit of the"second centenary Goal",which needs to be accurately understood and scientifically responded to.Based on the new historical direction of China's development,this paper systematically analyzes the challenges and coping strategies to promote Chinese-style modernization under the situation of negative population growth on the basis of combing and summarizing the characteristics of China's negative population growth.The research shows that the negative growth of China's population has the common characteristics of negative population growth in other countries,such as low fertility rate and continuous shrinkage of population scale.The development of China's population has the unique characteristics of being based on a huge population scale,highly compressed in time,forming a historical convergence with a new round of scientific and technological revolution,and overlapping with the leap forward modernization process.These characteristics of the negative growth of population have brought a series of economic,social,cultural and ecological challenges,such as the impact of supply and demand of economic growth,aggravating imbalance of regional development,hindering the inheritance and development of traditional excellent culture,highlighting the contradiction between economic development and ecological protection,affecting national defense security and border security of our country,etc.In the face of these challenges,this paper proposes to take measures based on the characteristic orientatio

关 键 词：人口负增长 中国式现代化 特征 挑战 应对 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]