女性劳动力参与、国际贸易与人口出生率  

Female Labor Force Participation,International Trade and Birth Rate

作　　者：孙博伟 汪泽 张伯伟[1] SUN Bo-wei;WANG Ze;ZHANG Bo-wei(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《西北人口》2025年第1期42-56,共15页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金第75批面上资助“供应链效率驱动数字基础设施建设的理论机制与政策选择”(2024M751507)。

摘　　要：探究女性劳动参与如何影响人口出生率,不仅可以了解过去人口出生率下降的原因,也对未来改善中国生育状况具有重要的启示意义。基于2000~2016年中国海关数据库和2007年中国工业企业数据库,构建省份层面出口部门女性劳动力参与度指标,从国际贸易的角度探究了女性劳动力参与对人口出生率的可能影响及作用机制。研究发现,出口部门女性劳动力参与的提升会显著抑制人口出生率水平;传导机制表明,出口部门女性劳动力参与会影响女性的婚育决策,通过增加女性未婚人口数量从而降低人口出生率;进一步研究发现,提升最低工资水平和劳动权益保护力度均有助于缓解女性劳动参与对生育的负面影响。实证分析中使用完全由地理因素所决定的工具变量和Bartik工具变量来解决可能存在的内生性问题,并通过使用不同年份和不同来源的女性劳动占比数据重新构建核心变量,均证明基本结论稳健。因此,政府不仅要积极推动改善女性工作环境,消除影响平等就业的不合理限制和就业歧视,多维度切实降低女性劳动者的生育成本,还需完善女性职场晋升渠道,减少女性因生育所面临的职场困境进而提高女性生育意愿,政府、企业和社会多方形成合力,推动建设生育友好型社会;此外,可以通过完善适合中国国情的最低工资制度和加强劳动权益保护来减缓当下人口出生率的降低趋势。Exploring how women's labor participation affects the birth rate not only helps to understand the reasons for the past decline in birth rates,but also has important implications for improving China's fertility situation in the future.Based on the China Customs Database from 2000 to 2016 and the China Industrial Enterprise Database from 2007,this study constructs indicators of female labor force participation in export departments at the provincial level,and explores the possible impact and mechanism of female labor force participation on birth rates from the perspective of international trade.Research has found that the increase in female labor force participation in the export sector significantly suppresses the level of birth rate;The transmission mechanism indicates that the participation of female labor force in the export sector will affect women's marriage and childbearing decisions,thereby reducing the birth rate by increasing the number of unmarried women;Further research has found that increasing the minimum wage level and protecting labor rights can help alleviate the negative impact of women's labor participation on fertility.In empirical analysis,instrumental variables determined entirely by geographical factors and Bartik instrumental variables were used to address potential endogeneity issues,and core variables were reconstructed using data on female labor force ratios from different years and sources,all of which demonstrated the robustness of the basic conclusions.Therefore,the government should not only actively promote the improvement of the working environment for women,eliminate unreasonable restrictions and employment discrimination that affect equal employment,effectively reduce the cost of childbirth for female workers from multiple dimensions,but also improve the promotion channels for women in the workplace,reduce the workplace difficulties faced by women due to childbirth,and thus increase women's willingness to have children.The government,enterprises,and society should work together to

关 键 词：人口出生率 女性劳动参与 国际贸易 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] C924.2[经济管理—国民经济]