人口老龄化、移动互联网与居民消费水平  

Population Aging,Mobile Internet and Residents'Consumption

作　　者：柳江 张颖 施惠玲 LIU Jiang;ZHANG Ying;SHI Hui-ling(School of Finance and Taxation,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou Gansu,730020,China;b.School of Economics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou Gansu,730020,China;Zhejiang Gongshang University Hangzhou College of Commerce,Hangzhou Zhejiang,311599,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学财政与税务学院,兰州730020 [2]兰州财经大学经济学院,兰州730020 [3]浙江工商大学杭州商学院,杭州311599

出　　处：《西北人口》2025年第1期117-126,共10页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：2025年甘肃省基础研究计划-软科学专项“甘肃省因地制宜发展新质生产力研究”。

摘　　要：人口老龄化引致消费需求不足的担忧,移动互联网的使用为引导消费、扩大内需以助力经济高质量发展提供新的机遇。基于2011~2022年中国31个省份面板数据,考察人口老龄化对居民消费水平的影响以及移动互联网能否缓解上述影响。研究发现:第一,人口老龄化对居民消费水平有显著负向影响,在进行一系列稳健性检验和内生性检验后,结论仍然成立。具体而言,传统文化和流动性约束等方面的影响会提高老年群体的预防性储蓄动机,人口老龄化所引致的税收负担、看护机会成本上升等限制了劳动力的消费水平,高等教育的普及与家庭养老需求在时间和资金方面产生一定程度的错配,加之少子化的现状,均不利于居民消费水平提高。第二,移动互联网通过推动消费理念与时俱进发展和破除经济制约发挥积极作用,显著缓解人口老龄化对居民消费水平的负向影响。第三,人口老龄化对居民消费水平的负向影响存在移动互联网使用量的地区异质性和城乡异质性,在低使用量地区大于高使用量地区,在乡村地区大于城镇地区。因而,应因地制宜提升移动互联网普及率以挖掘消费者内需,做好“互联网+”的文章以充分发挥移动互联网的积极作用,推动产品市场高质量发展以满足消费者高水平、多样化的需求。The aging population has caused concern about insufficient consumption demand.The use of mobile Internet provides new opportunities for guiding consumption and expanding domestic demand to help high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022,this paper examines the impact of population aging on residents'consumption level and whether mobile Internet can alleviate the above impact.Research has found that firstly,population aging has a significant negative impact on residents'consumption levels.After conducting a series of robustness and endogeneity tests,the conclusion still holds true.Specifically,the influence of traditional culture and mobility constraints will increase the precautionary savings motivation of the elderly population.The tax burden and caregiving opportunity costs caused by population aging limit the consumption level of labor.The popularization of higher education and the demand for family elderly care have a certain degree of mismatch in terms of time and funds.In addition,the current situation of low birth rate is not conducive to improving residents'consumption level.Second,mobile Internet plays a positive role in promoting the development of consumption concepts and breaking economic constraints,significantly alleviating the negative impact of population aging on residents'consumption level.Third,the negative impact of population aging on residents'consumption level has regional heterogeneity and urban-rural heterogeneity of mobile Internet usage,which is greater in low usage areas than in high usage areas,and greater in rural areas than in urban areas.Therefore,we should improve the penetration rate of mobile Internet according to local conditions to tap consumers'domestic demand,do a good job in the article“Internet plus”to give full play to the positive role of mobile Internet,and promote high-quality development of product markets to meet consumers'high-level and diversified needs.

关 键 词：居民消费水平 人口老龄化 移动互联网 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F126.1