基于物质平衡法评价全球天然气水合物资源潜力敏感性与可靠性分析  

Sensitivity and reliability analysis of global gas hydrate resource potential evaluation based on mass balance method

作　　者：蒲庭玉 庞雄奇[1,2] 王通 徐帜 施砍园 肖惠译 PU Tingyu;PANG Xiongqi;WANG Tong;XU Zhi;SHI Kanyuan;XIAO Huiyi(State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Engineering,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;College of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)油气资源与工程全国重点实验室,北京102249 [2]中国石油大学(北京)地球科学学院,北京102249

出　　处：《石油科学通报》2025年第1期51-64,共14页Petroleum Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国科学院学部重大咨询项目“南海石油天然气综合开发发展战略”(2019-ZW11-Z-035)资助。

摘　　要：全球天然气水合物(NGH)调查研究工作取得了飞速发展,自1973年到现在至少有30组科学家开展过NGH资源潜力定量评价。前人基于全油气系统的学术思想,将天然气水合物与常规油气和非常规油气的形成分布结合起来展开研究,并基于物质平衡的思想建立了它们之间的定量关系模式,在主控因素和实际试采资料约束下模拟计算出全球天然气水合物可采资源量众数值为41.46×10^(12)m^(3)。基于物质平衡原理模拟计算全球天然气水合物可采资源量的主控因素包括自由碳氢化合物动态场的面积(AF-HDF)、自由碳氢化合物动态场的厚度(HF-HDF)、水合物稳定带的面积(AGHSZ)、水合物稳定带的厚度(HGHSZ)、常规油气资源量(Q_(c1))、稠油沥青资源量(Q_(c2))和可采系数(RGH),同时考虑到水合物的生物降解和热降解两种成因机制,引入源岩供气比率(g);考虑到水合物与常规油气相态的差异,引入各自的体积系数Bgh和Bg。考虑到影响因素较多且各自变化范围较大,数值模拟结果的敏感性和可信度需进行分析,本文首先就物质平衡原理获得全球NGH可采资源量评估结果的敏感性进行了研究。结果表明:可采系数的敏感性最高(31.13%),其后依次为Q_(c1)、Q_(c2)、AF-HDF、AGHSZ、HGHSZ和HF-HDF,数值分别为22.70%、13.38%、12.44%、8.89%、6.12%和5.34%;然后在各要素联合控制下应用蒙特卡洛模拟评估可信度,全球水合物可采资源量众数值和平均值分别为78.09×10^(12)m^(3)和86.06×10^(12)m^(3),处于众数值前后±50%区间的置信度为88.95%,可信度较高,同时基于前人的评估结果进行了验证。进一步提高全球水合物可采资源量评价结果精度的有效方法是获得更多数量的实际试采开采资料,降低它们之间的不确定性。The global investigation of natural gas hyate(NGH)has made rapid progress,and at least 30 groups of scientists have carried out quantitative evaluation of NGH resource potential since 1973.Based on the academic thought of Whole Petroleum System,Professor Pang Xiongqi and others combined the formation and distribution of natural gas hydrate with conventional oil and gas and unconventional oil and gas,and established a quantitative relationship model between them based on the idea of mass balance.Under the constraints of the main control factors and the actual test data,the global natural gas hydrate recoverable resources quantity is calculated as 41.46×10^(12)m^(3).Based on the principle of mass balance,there are seven main controlling factors to calculate the recoverable resources of global natural gas hydrate.It includes the area of the free hydrocarbon dynamic field(AF-HDF),the thickness of the free hydrocarbon dynamic field(HF-HDF),the area of the hydrate stability zone(AGHSZ),the thickness of the hydrate stability zone(HGHSZ),the amount of conventional oil and gas resources(Qc1),the amount of heavy oil asphalt resources(Q_(c2))and the recovery coefficient(RGH).Taking into account both the biological degradation and thermal degradation mechanisms of hydrates,the source rock gas supply ratio(g)is introduced considering the difference in volume coefficients between hydrates and conventional oil and gas,their respective volume coefficients Bgh and Bg are introduced.In the case that the principle of the method is completely correct,the sensitivity and reliability of the numerical simulation results need to be analyzed considering that there are many influencing factors and their respective variation ranges are large.In this paper,the sensitivity of the mass balance method to obtain the assessment results of global NGH recoverable resources are studied.The results showed that the recoverable coefficient exhibits the highest sensitivity(31.13%),followed by Qc1,Q_(c2),AF-HDF,AGHSZ,HGHSZ and HF-HDF,with values of 22.

关 键 词：天然气水合物 全球水合物资源潜力 敏感性分析 物质平衡法 资源勘查 

分 类 号：TE122.3[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探] P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]