中国养老服务劳动力的现状、需求与未来  

The Status Quo,Demand and Future of the Workforce in China’s Elderly Care Service

作　　者：杜鹏[1] 罗叶圣 DU Peng;LUO Yesheng(School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872

出　　处：《江西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第1期44-56,共13页Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略”(编号:21ZDA106)。

摘　　要：从现状来看,我国养老服务劳动力规模稳步增长,机构服务劳动力的年龄相对偏高,居家社区服务劳动力的受教育程度相对偏低;我国人口老龄化与养老服务劳动力存量的协调状况在地区层面具有显著差异,在国际层面与日本和韩国还存在巨大差距。从需求情况来看,目前我国机构养老服务劳动力的需求得到基本满足,居家社区养老服务劳动力存量仅能覆盖重度失能老年人的服务需求;面向全体老年人享有基本养老服务的高质量发展目标,2050年我国养老服务的劳动力需求将达1092万-1400万。为此,应在厘清养老服务劳动力供需矛盾内在逻辑的基础上,从市场、政策、文化三重着力点共同发力,增强养老服务劳动力的有效供给,推动养老服务劳动力要素的高质量发展。From the status quo,the scale of the workforce in China’s elderly care service is steadily increasing,the age of the institutional service workforce is relatively high and the education level of home-based community service workforce is relatively low.There is significant difference in the coordination between population aging and the stock of the workforce in elderly care service at regional level in China.There is still a considerable gap between China and Japan and South Korea in terms of the coordination of population aging and the stock of the workforce in elderly care service at the international level.From the perspective of demand,at present,the demand of institutional elderly care service workforce in China has been basically met,and the workforce stock of home-based community elderly care service can only cover the service demand of severely disabled elderly people.To achieve the high-quality development goal of ensuring that basic elderly care is accessible to the entire elderly population,China’s demand for elderly care service workforce is expected to reach about 10.92 million to 14 million by 2050.Accordingly,on the basis of clarifying the internal logic of the contradiction between supply and demand of the elderly care service workforce,we should make joint efforts from the three points of market,policy and culture to enhance the effective supply of the elderly care service workforce and promote the high-quality development of the elderly care service workforce elements.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老服务 劳动力 机构养老 居家社区养老 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] C912.6[社会学]