中国人口发展质量水平测度、时空演变特征及影响因素  

Measurement and Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of the Quality Level of China’s Population Development and Influencing Factors

作　　者：周健[1] 邓晶晶 ZHOU Jian;DENG Jingjing(School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang,Liaoning 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《江西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第1期69-84,共16页Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“强化土地制度改革的关联效应促进城乡融合发展”(编号:20AJL013);辽宁省社科基金重点项目“数字经济推动人口红利向人才红利转变研究”(编号:L23AJL002)。

摘　　要：素质优良、总量充裕、结构优化、分布合理四个维度构成了评价人口发展质量水平的指标体系。基于2010—2022年省级面板数据的分析,中国人口发展质量水平的分布动态与区域差异呈现以下特征:(1)中国人口发展质量水平呈逐年提升趋势,但就目前而言尚未达到高质量发展水平,仍须稳步提升。(2)中国人口发展质量水平具有空间发展不平衡性,即东部地区人口发展质量水平要高于西部、中部及东北地区;东部地区人口发展质量水平两极化趋势明显,而其他地区的绝对差异基本稳定,人口发展质量水平较为协调。(3)区域间差异始终是人口发展质量水平总体区域差异的主要来源。(4)经济发展水平、基本公共服务水平、就业机会、营商环境均是显著影响人口发展质量水平的重要因素,而生活压力的提高不利于人口发展质量水平的提升;尽管自然环境对人口发展质量水平的影响不显著,但在推动人口高质量发展的过程中,也须给予充分关注。Good quality,abundant quantity,optimized structure and reasonable distribution construct an index system for evaluating the quality level of population development.Based on the analysis of the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2022,the distribution dynamics and regional differences of the quality level of population development in China present the following characteristics:firstly,the quality level of population development in China has been increasing year by year,but it has not yet reached the level of high-quality development as far as it goes,and it still needs to be steadily improved;secondly,the quality level of population development in China has the imbalance of spatial development,and the quality level of population development in the eastern region is higher than that in the western,central and northeast regions.The quality level of population development in eastern China has an obvious trend of polarization,while the absolute difference in other regions is basically stable,and the quality level of population development is more coordinated;thirdly,inter-regional differences are always the main source of overall regional differences in the quality level of population development;fourthly,economic development level,basic public service level,employment opportunities and business environment are all important factors that significantly affect the quality level of population development,and the improvement of living pressure is not conducive to the improvement of the quality level of population development.Although the impact of the natural environment on the quality level of population development is not significant,we also need to pay full attention to it in the process of promoting high-quality population development.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人口高质量发展 中国式现代化 时空演变特征 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学]