Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Their Impact on Heavy Rainfall in Indonesia's New Capital City,Nusantara,in March 2022  

作　　者：Eddy HERMAWAN Risyanto RISYANTO Anis PURWANINGSIH Dian Nur RATRI Ainur RIDHO Teguh HARJANA Dita Fatria ANDARINI Haries SATYAWARDHANA Akas Pinaringan SUJALU 

机构地区：[1]Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere(PRIMA),National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN),Jakarta 10340,Indonesia [2]Indonesia Meteorological,Climatological,and Geophysical Agency(BMKG),Jakarta 10720,Indonesia [3]Meteorology and Air Quality Group,Wageningen University and Research(WUR),Droevendaalsesteeg,6708 Wageningen,The Netherlands [4]Department of Meteorology,University of Reading,Reading RG66ET,United Kingdom [5]School of Geography,Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,The University of Melbourne,Parkville,Victoria 3010,Australia [6]Department of Agrotechnology,Faculty of Agriculture,Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda,Samarinda 75123,Indonesia

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2025年第2期342-356,共15页大气科学进展(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the Budget Execution(Allotment)Document,National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)in 2022(Grant No.SP DIPA-124.01.1.690504/2022)。

摘　　要：Nusantara,the new capital city of Indonesia,and its surrounding areas experienced intense heavy rainfall on 15-16 March 2022,leading to devastating and widespread flooding.However,the factors triggering such intense heavy rainfall and the underlying physical mechanisms are still not fully understood.Using high-resolution GSMaP(Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)data,we show that a mesoscale convective system(MCS)was the primary cause of the heavy rainfall event.The rainfall peak occurred during the MCS's mature stage at 1800 UTC 15 March 2022,and diminished as it entered the dissipation stage.To understand the large-scale environmental factors affecting the MCS event,we analyzed contributions from the MJO,equatorial waves,and low-frequency variability to column water vapor and moisture flux convergence.Results indicate a substantial influence of the MJO and equatorial waves on lower-level(boundary layer)meridional moisture flux convergence during the pre-MCS stage and initiation,with their contributions accounting for up to80%during the growth phase.Moreover,while La Nina and the Asian monsoon had negligible impacts on MCS moisture supply,we find a large contribution from the residual term of the water vapour budget during the maturation and decay phases of the MCS.This suggests that local forcing(such as small-scale convection,local evaporation,land-surface feedback,and topography)also contributed to modulation of the intensity and duration of the MCS.The results of this study can help in our understanding of the potential causes of extreme rainfall in Nusantara and could be leveraged to improve rainstorm forecasting and risk management across the region in the future.

关 键 词：Nusantara heavy rainfall MCS equatorial waves low-frequency variability local effects 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P445