Discovering Climate Change during the Early 21st Century via Wasserstein Stability Analysis  

作　　者：Zhiang XIE Dongwei CHEN Puxi LI 

机构地区：[1]Department of Earth and Space Sciences,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China [2]School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences,Clemson University,Clemson 29634,SC,USA [3]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2025年第2期373-381,共9页大气科学进展(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFC3000904);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42005039);the Science and Technology Development Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2024KJ013)。

摘　　要：Climate change is an essential topic in climate science,and the accessibility of accurate,high-resolution datasets in recent years has facilitated the extraction of more insights from big-data resources.Nonetheless,current research predominantly focuses on mean-value changes and largely overlooks changes in the probability distribution.In this study,a novel method called Wasserstein Stability Analysis(WSA)is developed to identify probability density function(PDF)changes,especially the extreme event shift and nonlinear physical value constraint variation in climate change.WSA is applied to the early 21st century and compared with traditional mean-value trend analysis.The results indicate that despite no significant trend,the equatorial eastern Pacific experienced a decline in hot extremes and an increase in cold extremes,indicating a La Nina-like temperature shift.Further analysis at two Arctic locations suggests sea ice severely restricts the hot extremes of surface air temperature.This impact is diminishing as the sea ice melts.By revealing PDF shifts,WSA emerges as a powerful tool to re-examine climate change dynamics,providing enhanced data-driven insights for understanding climate evolution.

关 键 词：climate change probability density function EXTREMES Wasserstein distance 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]