基于随机场景的配电网源网储协同规划方法  

A source-network-storage collaborative planning method for distribution networks based on random scenarios

作　　者：乐健[1] 王靖[1] 廖小兵 汪维豪 毛涛 LE Jian;WANG Jing;LIAO Xiaobing;WANG Weihao;MAO Tao(School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430205,China;Wuhan YICIYUAN Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430223,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学电气与自动化学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉工程大学电气信息学院,湖北武汉430205 [3]武汉亿磁源电力科技有限公司,湖北武汉430223

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2025年第4期132-147,共16页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目资助(2022YFF0610601)。

摘　　要：为应对配电网源网储协同规划中分布式光伏(photovoltaic,PV)出力和负荷需求的不确定性问题,提出了一种基于随机场景的配电网源网储协同规划方法。首先,基于Copula理论构建了源荷时空相关性概率模型,并通过蒙特卡洛法和K-means聚类算法分别进行场景生成与削减,得到了典型日场景源荷相关性出力曲线。在此基础上,以提升PV的高效消纳和配电网规划的经济性为目标,开展基于随机场景的配电网源网储协同规划研究,建立了PV、储能系统(energy storage system,ESS)和网架扩建的联合规划模型。最后,以25节点和54节点配电网系统为算例进行仿真分析,验证了所提方法能够有效减轻PV和负荷不确定性对配电网的影响,显著提高PV的消纳能力以及配电网规划的整体经济性。To deal with the uncertainty of PV output and load demand in the source-network-storage collaborative planning method for distribution networks,a source-network-storage collaborative planning method for distribution networks based on random scenarios is proposed.First,a source-load correlation probability model is established based on the Copula theory,and scene generation and reduction is carried out by the Monte Carlo method and K-means clustering algorithm,so as to obtain the source-load correlation output curve of a typical daily scene.On this basis,to improve the efficient consumption of PV and the planning economy of distribution networks,studies on the source-network-storage collaborative planning for distribution networks based on random scenarios are carried out,and the joint planning model of PV,energy storage system(ESS)and grid expansion is established.Finally,through the simulation analysis of 25-bus and 54-bus systems in a certain area,it is verified that the proposed method can effectively mitigate the impact of PV and load uncertainties on the distribution networks,and significantly improve the PV absorption capacity as well as the overall economy of distribution network planning.

关 键 词：配电网 源网储协同规划 COPULA理论 随机场景 混合整数二阶锥规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]