中国人口老龄化对服务业增长的影响机制研究  

Research on the Mechanism of the Effect of Population Aging on the Growth of the Service Sector

作　　者：韩汉君[1] 马迪 刘倩桦 HAN Han-jun;MA Di;LIU Qian-hua(Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020;Institute of Applied Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,200020 [2]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,200020

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2025年第1期56-66,共11页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：上海社会科学院院招标课题(研究生专项)(2024.10-2025.9)“人口老龄化对服务业高质量发展的影响研究”的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：服务业规模持续增长是服务业高质量发展的基础和目标,在“未富先老”的国情下,中国人口老龄化持续加深对服务业增长是“机遇”还是“挑战”值得探讨。本文基于消费需求和消费结构升级的视角,利用2003-2022年中国城市面板数据,构建面板双向固定效应模型识别老龄化对服务业增长的影响并深入分析其传导机制。研究发现:老龄化对服务业增长具有显著负向影响,其核心路径在于老龄化降低了消费需求。然而,消费结构升级能显著弱化老龄化对服务业增长的负向影响,并且当消费结构级别较高时,老龄化对服务业增长的负向影响不再显著。本文认为,提升老年群体的收入水平,加快发展老龄产业与银发经济,提升服务业供给水平与老龄化进程的适配性,可将老龄化对服务业增长的“挑战”转化为“机遇”。本文的研究发现为政府实施积极应对老龄化战略、实现服务业高质量发展提供了政策启示。The continuous expansion of the scale of the service sector is both the foundation and goal of high-quality development of the service sector.Under the national context of"aging before affluence",it is worth exploring whether the accelerated deepening of population aging represents an"opportunity"or a"challenge"to the growth of the service sector.This research utilizes Chinese city-level panel data from 2003 to 2022 to conduct a comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis of the mechanism through which aging impacts the growth of the service sector,focusing on the consumer demand effect and consumption structure upgrading effect.The key findings are as follows,aging has a significant negative effect on the growth of the service sector,because it suppresses the growth of the service sector by reducing consumer demand.However,the upgrading of consumption structure significantly weakens the negative effect of aging,and when the consumption structure reaches a higher level,the negative effect of aging on the service sector becomes insignificant.This study suggests that increasing the income of the elderly,accelerating the development of the elderly care sector and the silver economy,and enhancing the adaptability between service sector supply and the aging process can turn"challenges"into"opportunities".The findings provide policy insights for the government to actively respond to aging and promote the high-quality development of the service sector.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 服务业增长 消费需求 消费结构升级 银发经济 

分 类 号：F069[经济管理—政治经济学]