低利率政策对商业银行资本安全的差异性影响研究  

Research on the Differential Impact of Low Interest Rate Policies on Capital Security of Commercial Banks

作　　者：罗玉辉 李伯尧 王志政 LUO Yu-hui;LI Bo-yao;WANG Zhi-zheng(School of Marxism,Anhui University,230601;School of Business,China University of Political Science and Law,100088)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学马克思主义学院,230601 [2]中国政法大学商学院,100088

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2025年第1期102-113,共12页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“货币创造视角下中国影子银行的宏观效应及政策调控影响研究”(批准号:21CJY005)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：本文基于39家商业银行2013-2022年的面板数据,聚焦2019年中国降息政策实施对大型国有商业银行相较于其他商业银行资本充足率的影响,进而讨论低利率政策对商业银行资本安全的影响及其差异性。本文发现,在降息政策下,大型国有商业银行和其他商业银行的资本充足率均受到影响,但大型国有商业银行的资本充足率受影响相对较小,表现为更好的抵抗外部政策冲击的能力。净息差指标作为调节变量对上述结果呈现反向调节效应,即净息差越小,降息后国有大型银行相较于其他商业银行资本充足率所受影响越小。实证结论表明:一则大型国有商业银行相较于其他商业银行在降息政策下表现出更强的抗降息风险能力;二则对于较为依赖存贷利差业务收入的其他商业银行而言,降息将会对银行资本安全造成负面影响。由此,本文提出央行应适度考虑设置针对非国有大型商业银行的资本金补充措施,以便在保证降息政策有效传导至实体经济的同时,维护商业银行,特别是非国有大型商业银行的资本安全。Based on the panel data of 39 commercial banks from 2013 to 2022,this paper focuses on the impact of the implementation of China's interest rate cut policy on the capital adequacy ratio of large state-owned commercial banks compared with other commercial banks in 2019.This paper finds that the capital adequacy ratios of large state-owned commercial banks and other commercial banks are affected by the interest rate cut policy,but the capital adequacy ratio of large state-owned commercial banks is relatively less affected,which shows a better ability to withstand external policy shocks.The net interest margin indicator as a moderator variable shows an inverse moderating effect on the above results,i.e.,the smaller the net interest margin,the smaller the impact on the capital adequacy ratio of large state-owned commercial banks compared with other commercial banks after the interest rate cut.The empirical results show that:First,large state-owned commercial banks are more resistant to interest rate cuts than other commercial banks under the interest rate cut policy;Second,interest rate cuts will have a negative impact on the bank's capital security for other commercial banks that are more dependent on deposit and loan spreads for business income.Therefore,this paper suggests that the central bank should give due consideration to establishing capital replenishment measures for non-state-owned large commercial banks so as to ensure that the interest rate cut policy is effectively transmitted to the real economy while maintaining the capital security of commercial banks,especially non-state-owned large commercial banks.

关 键 词：降息政策 商业银行 银行资本安全 资本充足率 净息差 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]