甘肃省水资源承载力评价与分析--基于模糊综合评价法  

Evaluation and Analysis of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Gansu Province--Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：李沁峰 Li Qinfeng(Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences(Development Research Center of Shanxi Provincial People's Government),Taiyuan 030032,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省社会科学院/山西省人民政府发展研究中心,山西太原030032

出　　处：《绿色科技》2025年第1期254-260,共7页Journal of Green Science and Technology

摘　　要：水资源承载力是反映在区域可持续发展前提下,可开发水量用以维持人口、社会经济发展的能力,是实现水资源安全管理的基础。本文结合层次分析法和熵权法构建了模糊综合评价模型,分析了2018年甘肃省水资源承载力状况。评价结果显示:甘肃省14个市(州)均处于可承载或良好可承载状态。其中水资源子系统、社会子系统评分值区域差异明显,经济子系统整体状况较差,生态子系统总体状况较好。提出了应强化水资源管理,推动研发和推广先进的水资源管理技术,提高水资源利用效率,注重水土保持的建议,以进一步提高甘肃省水资源承载力,为区域可持续发展提供坚实的水资源保障。Water resources carrying capacity reflects the capacity of exploitable water resource to maintain popula-tion,social and economic development under the premise of regional sustainable development,and is the basis of realizing water resource security management.In this paper,the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method were combined to build a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to analyze the water resource carrying capacity of Gansu Province in 2018.The evaluation results show that all the 14 cities in Gansu Province are in the state of load-bearing or good load-bearing.The scores of the water resource subsystem and the social subsystem have obvious regional differences.The economic subsystem is poor,while the ecological subsystem is good.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen water resource management,promote research and development and promotion of advanced water resource management technology and improve the efficiency of water resource utilization.At-tention should be paid to soil and water conservation to further improve the water resources carrying capacity in Gansu Province,and provide solid water resource security for regional sustainable development.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 模糊综合评价模型 综合赋权法 空间分异 甘肃省 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]