基于优化的MaxEnt模型对全国巨柏潜在分布的预测  

Prediction of potential distribution of Cupressus gigantea W.C.Cheng&L.K.Fu in China based on optimized MaxEnt modeling

作　　者：曾伟英 王德智 叶琛[2,3] 龚宇 王昱熙 张全发 Zeng Weiying;Wang Dezhi;Ye Chen;Gong Yu;Wang Yuxi;Zhang Quanfa(School of Ecology and Environment,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,China;Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology,Wuhan Botanical Garden,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430074,China;University of Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100049,China;POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学生态环境学院,拉萨850000 [2]中国科学院武汉植物园,中国科学院水生植物与流域生态重点实验室,武汉430074 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,成都611130

出　　处：《植物科学学报》2025年第1期52-62,共11页Plant Science Journal

摘　　要：巨柏(Cupressus gigantea W.C.Cheng&L.K.Fu)是西藏特有种,国家一级保护植物。本研究基于R软件“kuenm”包优化模型参数,建立最优MaxEnt模型,预测了全国范围内巨柏的潜在适宜分布区,并结合贡献率和折刀测验分析了影响其分布的主导环境变量。结果显示,优化模型的表现效果较好,相比默认参数模型,降低了模型的复杂度,提高了模拟预测精度。与河流的距离、温度季节性变化标准差、等温性、坡度、最冷季度降水量是影响巨柏分布的主导环境变量。巨柏在我国的潜在适宜分布区集中在西藏和四川,西藏的林芝、山南、拉萨和日喀则占据了全部中适宜区(2298 km^(2))和高适宜区(746 km^(2)),其中高适宜区只分布在林芝(563 km^(2))和山南(183 km^(2)),约占西藏总面积的0.062%。朗县-米林市的高适宜区为巨柏潜在生境分布的核心地段,建议于此区域优先开展巨柏保护工作。Cupressus gigantea W.C.Cheng&L.K.Fu,a tree species endemic to Tibet and classified as a national first-class protected species in China,requires clear delineation of its potential suitable distribution for effective conservation,introduction,and breeding programs.This study established the MaxEnt model,using the“kuenm”R package to optimize model parameters,to predict the potential distribution of C.gigantea across China.Environmental variables influencing distribution were analyzed through percent contribution and Jackknife tests.The optimized model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy and reduced complexity compared to the default parameter model.Key factors influencing the distribution of C.gigantea included distance from rivers,temperature seasonality,isothermality,slope,and precipitation during the coldest quarter.Predicted suitable distribution areas were primarily located in Tibet and Sichuan,with the cities of Nyingchi,Lhoka,Lhasa,and Rikaze in Tibet encompassing the entirety of moderately suitable(2?298 km~2)and highly suitable areas(746 km~2).The high suitability area was exclusively distributed in Nyingchi(563 km~2)and Lhoka(183 km~2),representing about 0.062%of the total area of Tibet.The corridor between Lang County and Milin County emerged as the core habitat for C.gigantea,underscoring the need to prioritize conservation efforts in this critical region.

关 键 词：巨柏 生境 潜在分布区 MAXENT 西藏 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]