2012—2023年北京市房山区其他感染性腹泻时空聚集性研究  

Spatio-temporal analysis of non-infectious diarrhoea in Fangshan District,Beijing,2012—2023

作　　者：郭新慧[1,2] 张云奇 马仲慧 李丽丽 于海柱[1] 黄旭[3] 丁凡[3] 赵耀[1] GUO Xinhui;ZHANG Yunqi;MA Zhonghui;LI Lili;YU Haizhu;HUANG Xu;DING Fan;ZHAO Yao(Fangshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102401,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]北京市房山区疾病预防控制中心,北京102401 [2]中国现场流行病学培训项目(CFETP) [3]中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2025年第1期76-82,共7页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：首都卫生发展科研专项(首发2022-1G-3014)。

摘　　要：目的对2012—2013年北京市房山区其他感染性腹泻进行分析,了解房山区其他感染性腹泻病例的时空分布特征,为制定相关防控措施提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统中获取2012—2023年北京市房山区其他感染性腹泻病例资料并进行描述性流行病学分析。应用GeoDa 1.22.0软件进行空间自相关分析,研究其空间分布特征。采用SaTScan 9.5软件探索其时空聚集性。结果2012—2023年北京市房山区28个乡镇/街道均有其他感染性腹泻病例报告,累计报告病例17560例,年均报告发病率为128.73/10万,年度报告发病率整体呈下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=9.156,P<0.05)。病例发病呈明显季节性,6—8月出现高峰,12月出现次高峰。2013年、2015年、2016年、2021年和2022年房山区其他感染性腹泻发病率呈全局空间正相关,莫兰指数分别为0.26、0.24、0.24、0.34和0.27,除2019年外,其他年份局部自相关分析均出现“高-高”区域。不同年度的SaTScan时空扫描分析显示,2014—2020年一类聚集区主要分布在长阳镇,在4—9月出现聚集现象。结论北京市房山区其他感染性腹泻发病呈现一定的空间自相关,存在时空聚集现象,经济较发达、人口流动量较大的地区是其他感染性腹泻防控的重点区域,应对其开展有针对性的防控措施,以控制疾病的传播和扩散。Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of non-infectious diarrhea cases in Fangshan District,Beijing,from 2012 to 2023,providing a basis for developing relevant preventive and control measures.Methods Data on non-infectious diarrhoea cases in the Fangshan District of Beijing were obtained from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System(CDCIS)from 2012 to 2023 for descriptive epidemiological analysis.Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using GeoDa 1.22.0 software to investigate spatial distribution characteristics.SaTScan 9.5 software was applied to explore the spatio-temporal clustering of cases.Results From 2012 to 2023,cases of other infectious diarrhoea were reported in all 28towns and streets in Fangshan District,Beijing,with a cumulative total of 17560 cases documented,yielding an annual incidence rate of 128.73/100000.The overall trend of annual incidence rates showed a decline(trendχ^(2)=9.156,P<0.05).Cases exhibited significant seasonality,peaking from June to August,with a secondary peak in December.The incidence rates in 2013,2015,2016,2018,2021,and 2022 showed a positive global spatial correlation,with Moran's I values of 0.26,0.24,0.24,0.34,and 0.27,respectively.Except for 2019,local autocorrelation analysis indicated"high-high"clusters in other years.Annual spatiotemporal scanning analysis revealed that from 2014to 2020,the primary cluster areas were concentrated in Changyang Town,with clustering phenomena observed between April and September.Conclusions The incidence of non-infectious diarrhoea diseases in the Fangshan District of Beijing City is seasonal,and the incidence of the disease shows a spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal clustering.Areas with higher economic development and significant population mobility should be prioritized for targeted preventive and control measures to mitigate the spread and dissemination of the disease.

关 键 词：其他感染性腹泻 空间自相关 时空扫描分析 发病风险 

分 类 号：R183.4[医药卫生—流行病学]