未来气候情景下垂穗披碱草在中国的潜在分布  

Potential distribution of Elymus nutans in China under future climate scenarios

作  者:王鹏森 刘刚[2] 李旭旭 苏颖颖 李香君 魏莉 张建国[1] 曾园 周冀琼 WANG Pengsen;LIU Gang;LI Xuxu;SU Yingying;LI Xiangjun;WEI Li;ZHANG Jianguo;ZENG Yuan;ZHOU Jiqiong(Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Sichuan Academy of Grassland Sciences,Chengdu 610097,China;Sichuan Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Institute of Animal Husbandry Science,Kangding 626000,Sichuan,China)

机构地区:[1]四川农业大学,成都611130 [2]四川省草原科学研究院,成都610097 [3]甘孜藏族自治州畜牧业科学研究所,四川康定626000

出  处:《生态学杂志》2025年第2期590-599,共10页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基  金:国家自然科学基金面上项目(32271776);四川省自然科学基金(2024NSFSC0309);泸定县草原有害生物普查(649⁃2222339009)资助。

摘  要:全球气候变化持续影响着草地生态系统的组成及功能,探究一种优质乡土植物垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans Griseb.)在气候变化背景下的分布格局变化,有助于提高垂穗披碱草在草地生产及生态恢复过程中的利用效率。本研究利用优化后的MaxEnt模型对垂穗披碱草在当前及未来气候条件下的潜在分布区进行预测,拟解决以下科学问题:(1)垂穗披碱草在当前及未来不同情景下的分布状况;(2)制约垂穗披碱草地理分布的重要环境因子及其适宜区间;(3)未来气候情景相较于当前气候情景收缩、扩增及稳定区域的分布及质心转移情况。结果表明:垂穗披碱草在当前气候条件下的潜在分布面积是337×10^(4)km^(2),占全国总面积的35.1%,主要分布在我国西部和东北部地区,包括四川省西部、西藏自治区和青海省大部分地区,甘肃省西南部、新疆维吾尔自治区西北部以及内蒙古自治区东部,山西省北部、吉林省和黑龙江省也有较多分布。未来气候情景下,垂穗披碱草总潜在分布面积呈现增大趋势。限制垂穗披碱草分布的主要环境因子包括3个温度有关的环境因子:年平均气温(-4.2~5.0℃)、最暖月最高温(12.3~21.4℃)、等温性(36.4%~52.8%);1个降水相关因子:最干月降水量(0.6~5.9 mm);1个地形因子:海拔(2830~4839 m)以及1个人类活动因子:人为干扰指数(1.3~20.6)。在未来气候变化情景下,垂穗披碱草高适生区面积发生较大扩张,且不同时期不同排放情景下扩张面积较为稳定;中适生区面积未发生较大变化;低适生区面积在不同时期变化规律不同,在2021—2040年期间先减小后增大,但在2041—2060年期间先增加后减少。同时,其质心发生迁移,从当前到未来质心变化的方向大体是先向西南迁移,再向东北迁移。以上结果表明,气候变化对垂穗披碱草的分布有重要影响,明晰气候变化下垂穗披碱草分布的变化趋势以及影响其As climate change continues to reshape ecosystems worldwide,understanding its impact on species dis⁃tribution becomes crucial for effective conservation and management.In this study,we predicted the potential distri⁃bution area of an important native grass species in China,Elymus nutans Griseb.,with an optimized MaxEnt model⁃ing approach.Main aims of this study were:(1)exploring the distribution of Elymus nutans in different climate scenarios;(2)identifying the essential environmental factors influencing its geographical range and suitable habi⁃tats;(3)assessing the contraction,expansion,and stability of Elymus nutans’range under future climate scenari⁃os,and tracking the shift in its centroid under various climate scenarios.The results show that the potential distribu⁃tion area of Elymus nutans is approximately 337×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for 35.1%of the total national area.This species is primarily distributed in the western and northeastern China,including western Sichuan Province,most of Qinghai Province and Xizang Autonomous Region,the southwestern part of Gansu Province,the northwestern part of Xinjiang Autonomous Region,and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.There is also a signifi⁃cant distribution in the northern part of Shanxi Province,Jilin Province,and Heilongjiang Province.The entire po⁃tential distribution area of Elymus nutans exhibits a rising trend under future climatic scenario.The main environ⁃mental factors limiting the distribution of Elymus nutans include three temperature⁃related factors:annual mean temperature(-4.2 to 5.0℃),maximum temperature of the warmest month(12.3-21.4℃),and isothermality(36.4%-52.8%);one precipitation⁃related factor:precipitation of the driest month(0.6-5.9 mm);one topo⁃graphical factor:elevation(2830-4839 m);and a human activity factor:anthropogenic disturbance index(1.3-20.6).Under future climate change scenarios,the highly suitable area of Elymus nutans will expand greatly,while the expansion area will remain relati

关 键 词:MaxEnt模型 垂穗披碱草 气候变化 潜在分布 驱动因子 

分 类 号:S543.9[农业科学—作物学]

 

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