电力供给清洁化和能源消费电气化的耦合协调度及其对碳减排影响  

The Coupling Coordination Degree of Clean Power Supply and Electrification of Energy Consumption and Its Impact on Carbon Emission Reduction

作　　者：刘海英 韩鹏程 张瑜 LIU Haiying;HAN Pengcheng;ZHANG Yu(School of Economics and Management,Changchun University of Technology,Changchun Jilin 130012,China;School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116000,China)

机构地区：[1]长春工业大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130012 [2]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116000

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第3期33-42,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“环境规制促进我国工业绿色型传导机制研究”(20BJY102)。

摘　　要：改变能源结构,减少传统化石能源消耗,是实现碳减排的根本。电力供给清洁化和能源消费电气化的耦合协调是实现碳减排的重要手段,是实现“双碳”目标的主要着力点。论文基于中国2005—2020年30个省份的相关数据,测度供需两侧电力的耦合协调度,研究两侧电力耦合协调度时空变化及减排效果,研究结果表明:(1)从整体来看,各地区两侧电力耦合协调度随着时间变化不断提升,在样本期内东部地区平均上升58.11%,中部地区平均上升48.23%,而西部地区平均上升18.61%,并在各地区之间持续收敛;(2)两侧电力耦合协调度对碳减排有着明显的促进效果,在进行一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立,在分地区样本检验后,东部地区两侧电力耦合协调度的提升会显著降低碳排放,而在中西部地区碳减排的作用并不显著;(3)门槛检验结果显示,两侧电力耦合协调度对碳减排存在着正向单门槛效应,此外随着绿色技术创新的提升,两侧电力耦合协调度的正向减排效应也得到提升。研究结论从新的视角为深化电能替代、实现节能降耗提供了有益的参考和借鉴。Changing the energy structure and reducing traditional fossil energy consumption is the fundamental way to achieve carbon reduction.The coupling and coordination of clean electricity supply and electrification of energy consumption is an important means to achieve carbon reduction,and is the main focus of achieving the“dual carbon”goal.Based on the relevant data from 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020,the research measures the coupling coordination degree of electricity supply and demand,and investigates the spatiotemporal changes in the coupling coordination degree of electricity on both sides and its emission reduction effects.The research results show that:(1)Overall,the coordination degree of electricity coupling on both sides of each region continues to improve over time,with an average increase of 58.11%in the eastern region and 48.23%in the central region during the sample period.The average increase in the western region is 18.61%,and it continues to converge among different regions;(2)The coordination degree of electricity coupling on both sides has a significant promoting effect on carbon emissions reduction,which is still valid after a series of robustness tests.After regional sample testing,the improvement of electricity coupling coordination degree on both sides in the eastern region will significantly reduce carbon emissions,while the effect of carbon emissions reduction in the central and western regions is not significant;(3)The threshold test results show that there is a positive single threshold effect on carbon emission reduction due to the coordination degree of power coupling on both sides.In addition,with the improvement of green technology innovation,the positive emission reduction effect of power coupling coordination on both sides has also been improved.The research conclusion of this article can provide useful references and references for deepening electricity substitution and achieving energy conservation and consumption reduction from a new perspective.

关 键 词：电能替代 协调发展 绿色创新 碳排放 门槛效应模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F206