中国资源型城市碳排放特征、达峰态势及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Carbon Emission Characteristics,Peaking Situation and Driving Factors in China’s Resource-Based Cities

作　　者：王宇杰 段霄东 薛颖 张若楠 蔡佳倩 WANG Yujie;DUAN Xiaodong;XUE Ying;ZHANG Ruonan;CAI Jiaqian(School of Economic and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan Shanxi 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第3期43-49,63,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“碳阈值差异视角下城市‘双碳’践行绩效测度、驱动机制与优化路径研究”(42401363);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目“‘双碳’目标下资源型城市绿色低碳发展的路径选择与政策模拟研究”(23YJCZH230);山西省基础研究计划(自由探索类)面上项目“碳阈值差异视角下山西城市绿色低碳发展驱动机制及提升路径研究”(202303021221053)。

摘　　要：资源型城市是践行国家应对气候变化战略行动及实现碳达峰和碳中和目标的重要主体。论文首先对中国资源型城市的碳排放特征进行分析,接着运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析检验法对资源型城市碳达峰态势进行探究,并进一步使用STIRPAT模型和岭回归分析方法对资源型城市碳排放驱动因素进行了分析。研究发现:(1)2001—2020年,资源型城市碳排放总体呈现波动上升趋势,但不同类型城市碳排放存在较大分异,如成熟型城市碳排放增长趋势趋于平稳,衰退型城市碳排放在平稳增长后出现下降趋势。(2)截至2020年,全国资源型城市中共有20个资源型城市实现了碳达峰,占比17.54%。其中,成熟型城市数量最多,为8个;衰退型城市有6个;成长型和再生型城市的数量均为3个。(3)人口规模、经济发展水平、工业发展规模、居民消费水平、基础设施建设情况、能源消费结构均对资源型城市碳排放产生了正向影响,而产业结构对资源型城市碳排放量呈现负向影响的作用。最后,基于研究结论提出了相关建议。Resource cities are important subjects for practicing national strategic actions to address climate change and realizing the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.In this study,we first analyzed the carbon emission characteristics of resource cities in China,then explored the carbon peak trend and pattern of resource cities by using the Mann-Kendall trend analysis test,and further analyzed the drivers and relationship structure of carbon emission in resource cities by using the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis method.The findings are as follows.(1)From 2001 to 2020,the overall trend of carbon emission in resource cities shows a fluctuating upward trend,but there are large differences in carbon emission in different types of cities,such as the growth trend of carbon emission in mature cities tends to be stable,and the carbon emission in declining cities shows a downward trend after a stable growth.(2)As of 2020,a total of 20 resource cities in the country have achieved carbon peak,accounting for 17.54%,of which the number of mature cities is the highest at 8,the number of declining cities is 6,and the number of growing and regenerating cities are both 3.(3)Population size,economic development level,industrial development scale,residents’consumption level,infrastructure construction,and energy consumption structure all positively affect the carbon emissions of resource cities,while the industrial structure shows a negative effect on the carbon emissions of resource cities.Finally,relevant recommendations are put forward based on the research findings.

关 键 词：资源型城市 碳达峰态势 驱动因素 Mann-Kendall趋势检验 岭回归分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]