京津冀城市群城市韧性时空演变及协调度分析  

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Coordination of Urban Resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：姚翠友[1] 田一凡 王听听 石夫磊 YAO Cuiyou;TIAN Yifan;WANG Tingting;SHI Fulei(School of Management and Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院,北京100070

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第3期95-102,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：北京教育科学规划项目“2030年首都经济、社会、人口特征与教育供给结构研究”(BGEA22003)。

摘　　要：论文选定京津冀城市群13个城市,从经济、社会、基础设施、生态四个维度构建韧性评价体系,使用综合评价、不均衡指数、GM(1,1)模型分析城市韧性时空演变、系统协调性及未来城市韧性发展。结果表明:(1)城市韧性水平2010—2021年呈上升趋势,高韧性水平城市占比显著提高,但城市间韧性差异仍然存在;(2)子系统中社会韧性水平最高,生态韧性水平最低,城市韧性从断崖式分布演变成以北京—天津为核心的环状分布格局;(3)城市韧性提升期间,城市群边缘的较少城市系统协调性得到改善,绝大多数城市的系统协调性呈破坏状态;(4)石家庄将在2024年发展为核心城市,2030年除邯郸外,其余城市均达到高韧性水平且呈现面状连续空间分布。结论揭示了京津冀城市群韧性水平的时空演变规律、系统协调性现状及未来发展趋势,为城市规划和政策制定提供了重要参考。Thirteen cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were selected to construct a resilience evaluation system from four dimensions,namely,economic,social,infrastructure,and ecological,and to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of urban resilience,system coordination,and future development of urban resilience using the comprehensive evaluation,imbalance index,and GM(1,1)model.The results show that:(1)The toughness level of the urban agglomeration in 2010-2021 is an upward trend,the proportion of cities with high toughness level increases significantly,but the difference in toughness between the cities still exists;(2)The level of social toughness is the highest in the subsystem system,the level of ecological toughness is the lowest,and the urban toughness agglomeration has evolved from a cliff-like distribution to a ring-shaped distribution pattern with Beijing-Tianjin as the core.As the core of the ring-shaped distribution pattern;(3)During the period of urban resilience enhancement,fewer cities at the edge of the urban agglomeration have improved system coordination,and the system coordination of the majority of cities is in a state of destruction;(4)Shijiazhuang will develop into a core city in 2024 city cluster distribution pattern will be realized in 2024 high aggregation center by 1 to many,in 2030 in addition to Handan,Hengshui,the rest of the cities have reached a high level of toughness and present a face-like continuous spatial distribution.The conclusion reveals the temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the resilience levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the current state of system coordination,and future development trends,providing important references for urban planning and policy formulation.

关 键 词：城市韧性 时空演变 系统协调 韧性预测 京津冀 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2