我国社会经济因素驱动协同减污降碳影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Socio-Economic Factors-Driven Collaborative Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction in China

作　　者：樊宇 经思雨 王宁[1,2] 张健 FAN Yu;JING Siyu;WANG Ning;ZHANG Jian(School of Management Science and Engineering,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Development Big Data Decision Making,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学管理科学与工程学院,北京102206 [2]绿色发展大数据决策北京重点实验室,北京100192

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第3期193-201,229,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“降碳减排协同推进下产业结构优化决策与路径研究”(72204027)。

摘　　要：基于环境投入产出结构分解和协同效应评估方法分析了各社会经济因素对工业大气污染物(SO_(2)、烟粉尘、NOx)与CO_(2)排放的协同影响。研究发现:(1)经济增长与工业大气污染物和CO_(2)排放未实现协同解耦;(2)最终需求视角下,工业大气污染物和CO_(2)的共同关键排放部门为机械工业,主要差异部门在轻工业和电力热力、水的生产和供应业;(3)2007—2020年直接排放强度、生产结构和消费结构因素是促进工业污染减排的主要驱动力,人均最终需求因素促进了工业污染和CO_(2)的增排。此外,还发现各因素驱动各污染物与CO_(2)排放的协同影响逐渐呈一致性。未来通过增强生产技术创新、以绿色消费推动绿色产品的认证、增加绿色项目投资等措施可促进工业协同减污降碳。This article analyzes the synergistic effects of various factors on industrial air pollutants(SO_(2),smoke and dust,NOx)and CO_(2) based on the decomposition of environmental input-output structure and the evaluation of synergistic effects.The findings are as follows:(1)The synergistic decoupling between economic growth and industrial air pollutants and CO_(2) has not been achieved.(2)From the perspective of final demand,the key emission sectors of industrial air pollutants and CO_(2) are the mechanical industry,chemical industry,etc.,affected by different cumulative emission intensities of pollutants in the same department.The main differentiated sectors are in light industry and the production and supply industries of electricity,heat,and water.(3)The direct emission intensity,production structure,and consumption structure factors are the main driving forces for promoting industrial pollution reduction,while per capita final demand is the main factor for promoting industrial pollution and CO_(2) emissions increase from 2007 to 2020.Moreover,this article found that the synergistic effects of socio-economic factors driving various pollutants and CO_(2) emissions are gradually becoming consistent.In the future,measures such as increasing innovation in clean production technology,promoting certification of green products through green consumption,and increasing green investment can promote industrial collaborative pollution reduction and carbon reduction.

关 键 词：工业减污降碳 投入产出分析 结构分解分析 协同影响 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X196