城市轨道交通车站客流风险评估研究  

Research on Assessment of Passenger Flow Risks in Urban Rail Transit Stations

作　　者：王炜[1] 姚恩建[1] 张子龙 王艳辉[1] WANG Wei;YAO Enjian;ZHANG Zilong;WANG Yanhui(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《中国铁路》2025年第1期109-114,共6页China Railway

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金资助项目(L231001)。

摘　　要：针对城市轨道交通车站平峰期、高峰期和应急疏散期3个不同时期,从时空因素、乘客因素和环境因素3个方面对城市轨道交通的风险点、不同时期的风险特征进行分析。考虑不同区域上的客流速度、密度、持续时长、开行列车数等因素,计算客流聚集风险系数。通过分析乘客风险行为、乘客风险情绪、环境风险因素,计算乘客与环境风险系数。综合客流聚集风险系数、乘客与环境风险系数形成客流风险系数计算方法,用于确定客流风险等级,构建城市轨道交通车站客流风险评估指标体系。研究成果可为客流风险预警和客流管控措施制定提供依据,提高地铁安全管理和服务水平。Targeting three different periods for urban rail transit stations—off-peak period,peak period,and emergency evacuation period—this paper examines the risks associated with urban rail transit and the risk characteristics during these periods from space-time,passenger,and environment perspectives.By considering factors such as passenger flow speed,density,duration,and the number of trains operated across different areas,we calculated the passenger flow gathering risk coefficient.Moreover,the passenger and environment risk coefficients were derived by analyzing passenger risk behavior,passenger emotional response to risk,and environment risk factors.A calculation method for the passenger flow risk coefficient was developed by integrating the passenger flow gathering risk coefficient and the passenger and environment risk coefficient.It is used to determine the passenger flow risk level and to establish a passenger flow risk assessment indicator system for urban rail transit stations.The research findings provide a basis for the early warning of passenger flow risks and the development of passenger flow control measures,thereby improving the safety management and service of urban rail transit.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 客流风险 风险辨识 风险评估 乘客行为 拥挤系数 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]