基于全连接神经网络的广西北流市崩塌滑坡风险评价  

Landslide risk assessment of Beiliu City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region based on a fully connected neural network method

作　　者：何娜 朱习松 吴福 刘昶 吴秋菊 黄希明 蒋力 肖吉贵 文海涛 何添杰 常鸣[2] He Na;Zhu Xisong;Wu Fu;Liu Chang;Wu Qiuju;Huang Ximing;Jiang Li;Xiao Jigui;Wen Haitao;He Tianjie;Chang Ming(Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Geological Environment Monitoring Station,Nanning,Guangxi 530200i,China;State Key Laboratory of Geological Disaster Prevention and Geoenvironmental Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu,Sichuan 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区地质环境监测站,广西南宁530200 [2]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2025年第1期127-136,共10页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：广西壮族自治区地质环境监测站“广西地质灾害调查成果集成和应用专题研究项目”(AH2022-0617);国家自然科学基金项目(42477173);四川省自然科学基金项目(2024NSFSC0071)。

摘　　要：[目的]建立适用于广西岩溶地区的崩塌滑坡风险评价体系,为该地区崩塌滑坡的早期预警与防灾减灾提供科学依据。[方法]以北流市为研究区,构建崩塌滑坡数据库,采用斜坡单元为评价基础,系统收集并分析多源数据,选取包括地下水类型、径流强度指数在内的关键评价指标,利用全连接神经网络模型开展崩塌滑坡易发性评价。鉴于岩溶地区易受降雨和岩溶侵蚀的影响,研究引入土壤侵蚀模数进行危险性评价,最后结合承灾体易损性,构建北流市崩塌滑坡风险评价模型。[结果]风险评价结果表明,高和极高风险区的面积为252.22 km^(2),占北流市总面积的10.27%。这些高风险区主要分布在隆盛镇、新丰镇、平政镇和六靖镇一带,属于侵蚀剥蚀丘陵和构造侵蚀低山地区,岩土体松散,土壤侵蚀模数较大、人口密度高、建筑物集中,极易受到崩塌滑坡威胁,风险等级高。[结论]经过ROC曲线和野外调查验证,北流市崩塌滑坡易发性评价精度达0.966 4,风险评价准确率为89.3%。验证结果表明,所构建的模型具有较高的精度和实际适用性,评价结果与实际情况相符。[Objective]A comprehensive risk assessment system for collapses and landslides in the karst regions of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was established,in order to offerscientific support for early warning,disaster prevention,and mitigation in the area.[Methods]Beiliu City was selected as the study area,and a database of collapses and landslides was constructed.Slope units were used as the basis for the evaluation,with multisource data systematically collected and analyzed.Key evaluation indicators,including groundwater type and runoff intensity index,were identified,and a fully connected neural network model was employed to assess the susceptibility to collapses and landslides.Given the region’s vulnerability to rainfall and karst erosion,the soil erosion modulus was incorporated into the hazard assessment.Finally,a risk evaluation model for collapses and landslides in Beiliu City was developed by integrating vulnerability assessments of the exposed elements.[Results]The findings revealed that high-and very high-risk zones covered 252.22 km^(2),accounting for 10.27% of Beiliu City’s total area.These zones are primarily located in Longsheng Town,Xinfeng Town,Pingzheng Town,and Liujing Town,which are characterized by eroded and denuded hills and tectonic erosion of low mountains.Factors such as loose geotechnical body,high soil erosion modulus,dense population,and concentrated buildings significantly heightened the collapse and landslide risks,resulting in a high-risk classification.[Conclusion]Validation through ROC curves and field investigations showed an accuracy of 0.9664 for susceptibility evaluation and 89.3% for risk assessment in Beiliu City.These results demonstrate the high precision and practical applicability of the constructed model,which aligns closely with real-world scenarios.

关 键 词：广西岩溶地区 土壤侵蚀模数 全连接神经网络 崩塌滑坡 风险评价 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]