土地利用冲突时空动态过程与多情景模拟——以安徽省芜湖市为例  

Spatiotemporal dynamic process of land use conflicts and multi-scenario simulation——A case study in Wuhu City, Anhui Province

作　　者：白庆阳 程久苗 程超 吴九兴 Bai Qingyang;Cheng Jiumiao;Cheng Chao;Wu Jiuxing(School of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu,Anhui 241000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2025年第1期178-189,198,共13页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金项目“都市圈跨界区域土地利用转型的格局、机理与效应:以南京与合肥都市圈为例”(2208085MD86)。

摘　　要：[目的]探讨土地利用冲突的演变过程及其形成变化机制,为促进区域土地利用冲突缓解、优化区域土地资源配置提供理论依据。[方法]基于时空动态过程,从景观格局视角构建土地利用冲突识别模型,诊断芜湖市2000,2005,2010,2015和2020年5期土地利用冲突状况。基于贝叶斯时空层次模型和最优化地理探测器构建土地利用冲突时空动态过程形成机制框架,识别芜湖市土地利用冲突时空动态过程及形成机制。结合PLUS模型对芜湖市2030年土地利用进行多情景模拟预测。[结果](1)研究期内,芜湖市土地利用冲突水平呈现波动上升趋势,土地利用冲突空间格局主要呈现“南高北低,以长江为轴线不断扩展”,其局部变化热点分布集中于城乡交错区以及农业空间与生态空间交互区。(2)高程、坡度、距道路距离以及距水系距离等因素是芜湖市土地利用冲突格局形成的主要影响因素,而GDP和人口分布对于土地利用冲突形成的解释力度相对较小。(3)不同情景下土地利用冲突格局仍将延续前期变化,其中耕地保育和生态保护情景可以有效缓解土地利用冲突的形成,需在管理过程中维护农业、生态和经济发展之间的平衡。[结论]芜湖市土地利用冲突呈现不断强化态势,其中社会发展对其影响程度不断深化,未来仍需因地制宜强化国土空间用途管制,提升土地利用节约集约水平,实现高质量发展。[Objective]The evolution process of land use conflict and its formation and change mechanisms were explored to promote the alleviation of regional land-use conflict and optimize the allocation of regional land resources.[Methods]Based on a spatiotemporal dynamic process,a model for identifying land-use conflicts developed from a landscape pattern perspective was applied to diagnose land-use conflict situations across five periods(2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020)in Wuhu City,Anhui Province.By integrating the Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model and the optimal parameter-based geographical detector,a framework was established to understand the formation mechanisms of the spatiotemporal dynamics of land-use conflicts,identifying the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of land use conflicts in Wuhu City.The PLUS model was applied to conduct multi-scenario simulations and conflict mitigation analyses for land use in Wuhu City in 2030.[Results]①Over the study period,the level of land-use conflicts in Wuhu City fluctuated upward,with the spatial pattern predominantly displaying a higher conflict density in the south and lower in the north,continuously expanding along the Changjiang River axis.Hotspots of local variation were concentrated in the urban-rural fringe areas,where agricultural and ecological spaces intersected.②Land-use conflict patterns in Wuhu City were primarily formed by factors such as elevation,slope,proximity to roads,and distance from water systems,while GDP and population distribution had less influence on land-use conflict formation.③The pattern of land-use conflicts was expected to persist under different scenarios;notably,scenarios focused on farmland conservation and ecological protection could effectively mitigate the emergence of land-use conflicts,and the balance between agriculture,ecology and economic development should be maintained in the management process.[Conclusion]Land-use conflict in Wuhu City is constantly strengthening with the impact of deepening social development

关 键 词：土地利用冲突 贝叶斯时空层次模型 最优化地理探测器 多情景模拟 安徽省芜湖市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]