1985-2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测  

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985-2035

作　　者：刘小丹 李垒 张洪[2] 薛万来 刘可暄 薛晨旺 Liu Xiaodan;Li Lei;Zhang Hong;Xue Wanlai;Liu Kexuan;Xue Chenwang(Beijing Key Laboratory of Watershed Water Environment and Ecological Technology,Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute,Beijing 100048,China;Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市水科学技术研究院流域水环境与生态技术北京市重点实验室,北京100048 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京100085 [3]北京市密云水库管理处,北京101512

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2025年第1期244-253,共10页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项“永定河(北京段)河流廊道生态修复技术与示范”(2018ZX07101005-03);北京市科技计划课题“密云水库水生态安全优化调控技术体系研究与示范”(Z221100005222013);2024年北京水务科技开放项目(SK-2024-001-STS)。

摘　　要：[目的]开展1985-2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测研究,为流域“双碳”目标下山水林田湖草沙一体化保护修复和流域生态补偿标准优化提供科学依据。[方法]采用InVEST-PLUS模型对该流域1985-2020年碳储量时空演变格局进行分析,并预测2035年3种情景(自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护)下的碳储量变化趋势。[结果](1)1985-2020年,密云水库流域生态系统碳储量呈现持续增长趋势,35 a间碳储量增加2.35×10^(7) t,其中贡献程度最大的为林地,其次为草地和耕地,共占总碳储量约98%。(2)2035年,3种模拟情景下流域碳储量仍均趋于增长,相对来说在生态保护情景下,由于林地面积增长较多,导致碳储量保持较高水平。(3)流域碳储量呈现出“中南部高,西部、东北低”的空间格局,中南部对应流域山区地貌,为水源涵养核心区域,森林覆盖率较高,而西部、东北部主要分布草地、耕地及城镇建设用地等,相对碳储量偏低。[结论]碳储量与土地利用空间格局具有一致性,可通过生态建设增加林草地、控制林地转出及合理控制建设用地扩张来促进生态系统碳储量巩固与提升。[Objective]Spatial and temporal succession patterns and predictions of ecosystem carbon storage in the Miyun Reservoir basin from 1985 to 2035 were conducted to provide a scientific basis for the integrated protection and restoration of mountains,rivers,forests,fields,lakes,grasslands,and sands and the optimization of ecological compensation standards under the goal of“double carbon”in the basin.[Methods]The InVEST-PLUS model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the basin during 1985-2020,and the changing trend of carbon storage under three scenarios(natural development,cultivated land protection,and ecological protection)in 2035 was predicted.[Results]①During 1985—2020,the ecosystem carbon storage of Miyun Reservoir basin showed a continuous growth trend,and the carbon storage increased by 4.03×10^(7) t in 35 years.The largest contributors to carbon storage were forest land,grassland,and cultivated land,which accounted for approximately 98%of the total carbon storage.②In 2035,the carbon storage of the basin will tend to increase under the three simulation scenarios.In the protection scenario,owing to the increase in forestland area,carbon storage remains at a high level.③Carbon storage in the basin showed a spatial pattern of'higher in the south-central part and lower in the west and northeast’.The south-central part corresponds to the mountainous landform of the basin,which was the core area of water conservation,and the forest coverage rate was higher,while the west and northeast were mainly distributed in grassland,cultivated land,and urban construction land,with relatively lower carbon storage.[Conclusion]Carbon storage is consistent with the spatial pattern of land use.The consolidation and improvement of ecosystem carbon storage can be promoted by increasing forests and grasslands through ecological construction,controlling the transfer of forest land,and reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 生态系统碳储量 密云水库流域 

分 类 号：X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]