1992—2021年中国梅毒发病趋势分析及预测  

Trend Analyzation and Prediction of Syphilis Incidence in Chinese Population from 1992 to 2021

作　　者：武长礼 叶丰 王云鹏 武庆昌 WU Chang-Li;YE Feng;WANG Yun-Peng;WU Qing-Chang(Hubei International Travel Health Care Center(Outpatient Department of Wuhan Customs Port),Wuhan 430070;Guangfeng Institute for Skin Disease and STD Control,Shangrao 334600;Heping Community Health Service Center,Hongshan District,Wuhan 430081;Soochow University,Suzhou 215021)

机构地区：[1]湖北国际旅行卫生保健中心(武汉海关口岸门诊部),武汉430070 [2]江西省上饶市广丰区皮肤性病防治所,上饶334600 [3]武汉市洪山区和平街社区卫生服务中心,武汉430081 [4]苏州大学,苏州215021

出　　处：《中国口岸科学技术》2025年第1期54-61,共8页China Port Science and Technology

基　　金：武汉海关科研项目(2023WK013)。

摘　　要：本文分析了1992—2021年中国梅毒发病趋势并进行了预测。通过采用全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)数据库中的梅毒发病数据,分析其发病趋势、年龄、时期和队列效应以及预测未来10年梅毒发病率。结果显示,我国1992—2021年梅毒发病人数呈小幅上升,总体上升0.93%,男性年龄标准化发病率呈下降趋势。随着年龄增长,在15~54岁年龄段全人群、男性和女性的梅毒发病风险均呈现增加趋势;在2007—2021年和1932—1976年队列,随时间推移全人群和男性的梅毒发病风险均增加;女性在2002—2006年和1937—1971年队列发病风险随时间推移增加。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测显示整体人群和男性年龄标准化发病率总体上均呈下降趋势,女性则呈上升趋势。结果表明,不同性别的发病风险存在一定差异,应尽早制定更有针对性的防治措施,提高公众的防范意识和能力,保障人民群众的身体健康。Using the syphilis incidence data from the global burden of disease(GBD)database,this study analyzed the incidence trends,age,period,and cohort effects,and predicted the syphilis incidence rates for the next 10 years.The results showed that from 1992 to 2021,the number of syphilis cases in China increased slightly,with an overall rise of 0.93%.The agestandardized incidence rate for males showed a downward trend.With advancing age,the risk of syphilis incidence increased in the 15-54 age group for the entire population, males, and females. In the cohorts of 2007-2021 and 1932-1976, the risk ofsyphilis incidence increased over time for the entire populatio n and males;for females, the risk increased in the cohorts of 2002-2006 and 1937-1971. Bayesian age-period-cohort model predictions indicated that the age-standardized incidence rates for theoverall population and males will generally decrease, while for females, it will increase. The results suggest that there are certaindifferences in the risk of incidence between different genders. Therefore, it is necessary to develop more targeted prevention andcontrol measures as soon as possible, enhance the public’s awareness and ability to prevent the disease, and safeguard the healthof the people.

关 键 词：梅毒 联结点回归 年龄-时期-队列模型 预测 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]