计及新能源出力不确定性的短路特征分析模型与继电保护实时风险评估  

Short-Circuit Characteristic Analysis Model and Real-time Risk Assessment of Protection Considering Uncertainties of New Energy Output

作　　者：梁远升[1] 徐征 李海锋[1] 王钢[1] 陈浩泳 李佳 LIANG Yuansheng;XU Zheng;LI Haifeng;WANG Gang;CHEN Haoyong;LI Jia(School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广州市510641

出　　处：《电力建设》2025年第2期113-124,共12页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52077082)。

摘　　要：在柔性直流互联与新能源大规模接入背景下,当系统发生短路故障时,低压穿越控制引起故障特征的不确定性,增加了继电保护装置不正确动作的风险。为建立准确的继电保护实时风险评估模型,结合低压穿越控制特性构建计及不确定性的短路分析计算模型;考虑新能源出力短时随机波动与测量误差,基于随机响应面法构建继电保护装置动作不确定性分析模型,进而评估保护装置不正确动作概率,并提出继电保护装置不正确动作风险评估与预警方法。最后,构建了PSCAD仿真模型以验证计及低压穿越控制的短路计算模型的正确性,并基于蒙特卡洛抽样验证了基于随机响应面法的保护装置动作充裕度概率与其具有等价效果。通过多个算例场景证明了所提继电保护风险预警方法能够计算保护装置不正确动作的实时风险,为完善保护措施提供参考。In the context of flexible DC interconnection and the large-scale integration of new energy,when a system experiences a short-circuit fault,low-voltage ride-through(LVRT)control causes uncertainty in fault characteristics,increasing the risk of incorrect protection action.This study aims to establish an accurate real-time risk assessment model for protection and combine the characteristics of LVRT control to construct a short-circuit analysis calculation model that takes uncertainty into account.Considering the short-term random fluctuations of the new energy output and measurement errors,an uncertainty analysis model for protection actions was constructed based on the stochastic response surface method to evaluate the probability of incorrect protection actions and to propose a risk assessment and warning method for inaccurate protection actions.Finally,a PSCAD simulation model is constructed to verify the accuracy of the short-circuit calculation model considering LVRT control.Based on Monte Carlo sampling,the probability of the adequacy of protection actions based on the random response surface method and its equivalent effect were verified.Through multiple case scenarios,it was demonstrated that the proposed protection risk warning method can calculate the real-time risk of incorrect protection actions,thereby providing a reference for improving protection measures.

关 键 词：低压穿越(LVRT)控制 故障特征分析 随机响应面法(SRSM) 继电保护风险评估 

分 类 号：TM77[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]