基于HYDRUS模型的1979—2018年黄河源头区冻土热状态变化  

Changes in the Thermal Regime of Permafrost in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River in 1979-2018 Based on the HYDRUS Model

作　　者：雷汶杰 罗栋梁 陈方方 刘佳 彭贻菲 李世珍 沈琦 LEI Wenjie;LUO Dongliang;CHEN Fangfang;LIU Jia;PENG Yifei;LI Shizhen;SHEN Qi(Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Geomatics,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin Liaoning 123000,China;Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学与冻土工程重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]辽宁工程技术大学测绘与地理科学学院,辽宁阜新123000 [4]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2024年第11期1183-1195,共13页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：甘肃省科技重大专项(编号:23ZDFA017);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:U2243214);中国科学院西部青年学者项目资助。

摘　　要：土壤热状态是指示多年冻土存在及其热稳定性的最关键指标。为探究黄河源头区冻土热状态的较长期变化,首先构建了土壤热传导数学模型并基于HYDRUS-1D模型求解,经参数率定验证,表明该模型具有较好的可靠性和适用性,然后利用中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集(CMFD)驱动模拟了黄河源头区6个钻孔1979—2018年冻土地温的变化。结果表明,黄河源头区冻土热状态在1999年发生转变:1999年前温度变化速率为-0.037~0.026℃°C/a,1999年后升温速率为0.006~0.120℃/a。分析表明1998年的气候变暖突变及1999年的极端气候灾害突变是黄河源头区冻土地温在1999年发生突变的主要原因;冻土地温升高,冻土热稳定性下降,将深刻影响冻土水源涵养功能。该研究可厘清高原冻土对气候变化的响应规律,为加强黄河源头区生态环境分区管控提供科技支撑。The thermal regime of soil is vital for determining the presence and thermal stability of permafrost.To study long-term changes in the permafrost thermal regime in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River(HAYR),a mathematical model for soil heat transfer to simulate the dynamics of ground temperatures at six boreholes using the HYDRUS-1D model.The model’s reliability and applicability were confirmed through parameter calibration.Changes in the permafrost thermal regime from 1979 to 2018 in the HAYR were then simulated using monthly air temperature data from the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD).Model simulations revealed an abrupt change in the mean annual ground temperature in the HAYR after 1999.Prior to 1999,the changing rates were from-0.037 to 0.026℃/a,whereas after 1999,they ranged from 0.0059 to 0.12℃/a.The abrupt increase in mean annual air temperature in 1998 and the occurrence of extreme climate disasters in 1999 were identified as the primary reasons for the sudden changes in the permafrost thermal regime in 1999.The rise in permafrost temperature and decrease in its thermal stability are expected to impact water resource conservation and biogeochemical cycles.This study provides scientific and technological support for understanding the response patterns of plateau permafrost to climate change and strengthening the zoning and control of the ecological environment in the HAYR.

关 键 词：黄河源头区 气候变暖 冻土地温 HYDRUS-1D 模型模拟 

分 类 号：P642.14[天文地球—工程地质学]