中国城市碳排与空气污染物PM_(2.5)的影响机制对比研究  

Comparative Study on the Impact Mechanism of Carbon Emissions and Air Pollutant PM_(2.5) in Chinese Cities

作　　者：张纯[1] 董雪偲 黄志基[2] 李雪源 ZHANG Chun;DONG Xuecai;HUANG Zhiji;LI Xueyuan

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学建筑与艺术学院,北京100091 [2]中央财经大学政府管理学院,北京100081 [3]澳门城市大学创新设计学院,中国澳门特别行政区999078

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2025年第2期31-39,共9页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41401651)“城市形态对空气质量的影响机制研究”。

摘　　要：随着“双碳”目标提出和近几十年来我国城市出现面积范围广、持续时间长的雾霆现象,城市形态对空气污染、碳排放的综合影响备受关注。选择PM_(2.5)、城市碳排放水平作为反映城市环境的指标,以三个时间断面数据为基础,建立回归模型揭示城市形态对城市减污、降碳的影响机制,对比PM_(2.5)和碳排的关键影响因子和驱动差异。研究发现:PM_(2.5)浓度和碳排放均呈现较强空间自相关的区域传输特性。PM_(2.5)浓度空间分布从“大而散”向“小而密”的特征演进,碳排放呈现“零星高碳”到“京津冀豫蒙高碳”的分布规律;②小型(Ⅰ、Ⅱ)城市PM_(2.5)浓度与碳排放呈现不同程度的增降规律,是未来减污、降碳协同治理重点;③PM_(2.5)和碳排放的影响因子各异,不同时间节点影响因子的驱动力有所不同,反映出污染性和非污染性排放之间的复杂关联。本研究通过城市碳排放和空气质量的城市形态影响机制对比,为未来巩固雾霆治理成果的同时进一步协同降碳,针对不同城市形态特征制定分类减排政策提供依据。With the introduction of the"dual carbon"goals and the long-lasting haze phenomenon that has emerged in Chinese cities over the past few decades,the comprehensive impact of urban morphology on air pollution and carbon emissions has drawn significant attention.This article selects PM_(2.5) and urban carbon emission levels as indicators reflecting urban environments,establishing a regression model based on data from three time points to reveal the mechanisms by which urban morphology affects pollution reduction and carbon reduction,and to compare the key influencing factors and driving differences between PM_(2.5)and carbon emissions.The study finds:Both PM_(2.5) concentration and carbon emissions exhibit strong spatial autocorrelation and regional transmission characteristics.The spatial distribution of PM_(2.5) concentration evolves from"large and dispersed"to"small and dense,"while carbon emissions show a distribution pattern from"sporadic high carbon"to"high carbon in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Henan,and Inner Mongolia";②The PM_(2.5)concentration and carbon emissions of small cities(I and II)show varying degrees of increase and decrease,highlighting them as key areas for future coordinated pollution reduction and carbon reduction governance;③The influencing factors of PM_(2.5) and carbon emissions differ,and the driving forces of these factors vary at different time points,reflecting the complex relationship between pollutant and non-pollutant emissions.This research provides a basis for formulating classified emission reduction policies tailored to different urban morphology characteristics while consolidating haze governance achievements and furthering coordinated carbon reduction efforts in the future.

关 键 词：城市碳排放 PM_(2.5) 协同降碳 影响机制 逐步多元回归模型 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]